長牛完未？

《紅藥丸雜誌》專欄羅耕〈財經DNA〉2025年5月23日長牛完未？ 一個長牛背後總有長線因素驅動，是次應是AI。那今潮AI和美股長牛完未呢？  標指P/E現25倍，說平不平但話貴亦不貴。均值迴歸原則是由under會變over。觀乎標指P/E長期均值約18、22，這潮長牛由低於此值升至到價，理應會升至超值。 卅四年前後標指P/E拼圖亦料如此，即是次P/E長牛尚有兩年許。回到標指本身，長牛日子未必準確對應：對上兩次P/E長牛於1971和1993年結束，但標指本身的則於1968和2000年。至於AI，機器學習始於2000年代初，迄今已廿年，對於一浪技術，由無到有、少到多計，廿年已差不多，即使未完亦概已進下半場。   由此可見，無論基本因素（AI）或價（標指）及其比例（P/E），尚餘大概幾年。短一些以週期計，標指現縱可再創新高，但十年後未必會比現水平高出很多。   羅耕 [email protected]

Global Biotech Weekly

This week we focus on the catalysts due for Phase 1 and 2 trials. At this stage in development, these trials aim to test the safety, side effects, and best dose of a new treatment. Data from these trials can also review initial efficacy data that will then be used to compare with the drug’s efficacy

Biotech Stock Updates

We focus to look at key drivers of biotech stocks' price movement on 21 May 2025. UroGen Pharma (NASDAQ: URGN) announced that the FDA’s Oncologic Drugs Advisory Committee (ODAC) voted 4–5 against the benefit-risk profile of its investigational therapy UGN-102 (mitomycin) for intravesical solution fo CEL-SCI Corporation (NYSE: CVM) announced that it intends to offer to sell shares of its common stock and/or pre-funded warrants in an underwritten public offering. Shares traded down 13% at US$3.95 during after hours Petros Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: PTPI) partnered with Innolitics to upgrade its SaaS platform by integrating AI, cybersecurity, and cloud-based capabilities. Innolitics, known for its work with Fortune 100 companies and Biodesix (NASDAQ: BDSX) shares traded higher after Jack Schulher bought 723,239 and 4,000,000 shares of the company at US$0.341 and US$0.2675, respectively, since last Friday. Shares closed up 46% at US$0.4. Jaguar Health (NASDAQ: JAGX) will raise capital via a direct offering of 246,306 shares at US$6.09/share, and a concurrent private placement of warrants for 492,612 shares at US$5.84/share. Shares closed down 27% at US NeurAxis (NYSE: NRXS) announced a US$5.0M direct offering, selling 1,538,461 common shares at US$3.25/share, priced at market under NYSE American rules. Shares closed down 20% at US$3.2. Quipt Home Medical (NASDAQ: QIPT) received an unsolicited, non-binding proposal from Forager Capital Management to acquire 100% of its common shares at US$3.10 per share. Shares closed down 9% at US$1.95.

德牛中場

《紅藥丸雜誌》專欄羅耕〈財經DNA〉2025年5月16日德牛中場 近云錢離美股四散他方，尤到歐洲。的確，環顧一眾股市，似僅德指DAX破頂。  廿七年七個月前後的DAX拼圖所見，目前德股儼如1997年尾時處大牛市中段，整固過後尚有三季升浪至明年初，屆時再整固後再展尾浪明秋完成牛市。真這樂觀？ 德股能否倍翻未知，也許升幅未必跟足，但基本因素卻不難解釋。不知不覺間，德國實質GDP已連續七季按年收縮。衰退通常甚少一口氣逾兩年，故時間上似近尾。何況今趟衰退確不像樣──自2023年秋衰起至今，DAX不斷破頂，確實衰得有趣。   衰退市尚如此，不衰自然不得了。一旦俄烏休戰，而中美仍戰令歐洲漁人得利，可見睇好德股的故仔其實早已擺在枱面，只欠一個藉口讓大行帶頭大規模將之炒起。   圖料本月底再輕輕稍插一腳後旋即開始爆上。 羅耕 [email protected]

MPF Portfolio: April Update and Strategy

Global equities faced selling pressure in April amid US-China trade tensions sparked by President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. My Manulife MPF portfolio declined by 0.72%, reaching HK$860,350, slightly underperforming the MPFR All Fund Performance Index, which fell 0.61%. However, the portfolio h

Biotech Stock Updates

We focus to look at key drivers of biotech stocks' price movement on 14 May 2025. Incannex Healthcare (NASDAQ: IXHL) shares closed up 866% at US$0.82 following the completion of patient dosing in the Phase 2 portion of its Phase 2/3 RePOSA study evaluating IHL-42X for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Bluebird Bio (NASDAQ: BLUE), Carlyle, and SK Capital amended their acquisition agreement. Bluebird stockholders can now choose between US$3.00 per share plus a US$6.84 CVR upon achieving a sales milestone, or US$5.00 p Aytu BioPharma (NASDAQ: AYTU) reported quarterly earnings of US$0.21 per share, exceeding analyst estimates losses of US$0.17 by 223.5% and marking a 140.4% improvement from last year’s US$0.52 loss. Quarterly sales re Septerna (NASDAQ: SEPN) and Novo Nordisk (NASDAQ: NVO) have entered an exclusive global collaboration to discover, develop, and commercialize oral small-molecule medicines for obesity, type 2 diabetes, and other cardio Plus Therapeutics (NASDAQ: PSTV) is expected to report increased earnings on higher revenue for the quarter ending March 2025. Consensus estimates project a US$0.17 per share loss and US$1.85m in revenue. Surpassing th Quoin Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: QNRX) observed clear skin improvement in a pediatric peeling skin syndrome study after 12 weeks. Key endpoints showed significant improvement, and the treatment QRX003 was well-tolerated. Allurion Technologies (NASDAQ: ALUR) shares closed up 26% at US$3 following obesity data. Studies highlighted weight loss and muscle gain with their balloon and AI-powered care, both with and without GLP-1s. Combining

Global Biotech Weekly

This week, we will focus on key Phase 3 catalysts left for the quarter anticipated in the immediate term over the next two months. Reviva Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: RVPH) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company with a market cap under US$100m. The company is focused on developing therapies targe Brilaroxazine is being developed for schizophrenia, with results from the Phase 3 RECOVER trial showing broad-spectrum efficacy and a favorable long-term safety profile. NovoCure (NASDAQ: NVCR) is a commercial-stage oncology company with a market cap in the mid-single-digit billions, known for its Tumor Treating Fields (TTFields) platfor NovoCure’s Phase 3 PANOVA-3 trial evaluated TTFields combined with nab-paclitaxel and gemcitabine for locally advanced pancreatic cancer. Final results released in Decem Gossamer Bio (NASDAQ: GOSS) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing therapies for pulmonary diseases. The company has a small market cap unde Seralutinib is currently being evaluated in the Phase 3 PROSERA trial for PAH, following positive results from the Phase 2 TORREY study, which met its primary endpoint. InflaRx N.V. (NASDAQ: IFRX) is a clinical-stage biotech developing anti-inflammatory therapeutics, with a focus on complement factor C5a inhibition. The company has a sm Vilobelimab is in a pivotal Phase 3 trial for pyoderma gangraenosum (PG), a rare neutrophilic dermatosis. The ongoing study follows a promising Phase 2a dose-finding tri

Is Berkshire Hathaway a Buy Now?

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B), the financial conglomerate powered by its insurance business and a diversified portfolio of value stocks, grabbed headlines after major news. On 3 May 2025, legendary Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett stepped down at 94, sparking a sharp share price drop. Berkshire’s stock

古金‧今幣

《紅藥丸雜誌》專欄羅耕〈財經DNA〉2025年5月9日古金‧今幣 幣圈、fintech界勢必看好比特幣。幣市總值無疑曾自十年八載前的幾十億（bn）美元幾何級數式躍升至疫後的幾十萬億（tn）元；但須承認，過去四年仍徘徊於2兆。  這種現象跟金市的「黃金十年」一樣。自1970年代初廢金本位後，金飆過十年，但此後十年黃金變爛銅。其實，十年足夠讓資產泡沫化和新興的市場成熟化，如2000年代的油價和1920年代的美股。歷史經驗所見，這種十年狂飆過後，往往有廿年唞。   這種十年狂升廿年停之象，未見過一整個市場發展階段的幣圈教徒是難理解的。從當年金價和今日比特幣價發展所見（此圖不宜短線測價），前景似是橫行多於單邊。 羅耕 [email protected]

Global Biotech Weekly

As the American Society of Clinical Oncology Conference (ASCO25) approaches, we’re spotlighting key data and late-breaking presentations to watch. With abstracts scheduled for release on 23 May and the conference taking place on 30 May 2025, this preview offers investors ample time to conduct furthe

波波啓示

《紅藥丸雜誌》專欄羅耕〈財經DNA〉2025年5月2日波波啓示 說美股難玩嗎？年初見頂後3月始急挫，劇本並不新鮮，試過多次。說易玩嗎？如斯大幅上落震走不少人。美股的波幅未必拼到好圖，但波幅的波幅則見十年循環。  如圖所料，VVIX確如十年前般短暫見頂，但踩上一格後不似會回，新常態從昔日90以下變為之上。怎理解波幅的波幅高了？波幅即VIX是一個月內標指有多大上落，而波幅的波幅高了即是VIX的波幅高了，意指標指時而窄幅、時而大上落，故難測。 以前VVIX能稍領先VIX，皆因跌市較有秩序，VIX升得漸進。但當指數暴挫、VIX動輒突飆時，其波幅即VVIX也呈相若模式，故亦突飆，使兩者時差接近消失。   這可能跟愈來愈多AI自動操盤有關。同類AI以類近數據訓練，結果行為相似，令市直上直落。反而人肉操盤各有睇法，不至於此。   羅耕 [email protected]

Biotech Stock Updates

We focus to look at recent key drivers of biotech stocks' price movement. Relmada Therapeutics (NASDAQ: RLMD) reported Phase 2 results for NDV-01 in non-muscle invasive bladder cancer, with a 90% overall response rate, 89% high-grade recurrence-free survival in papillary disease, and 100% complete r Silo Pharma (NASDAQ: SILO) filed a U.S. patent application for SPC-14, an intranasal Alzheimer’s treatment licensed from Columbia University, covering its novel dual targeting of NMDAR and 5-HT4 receptors to address cognitive Senti Biosciences (NASDAQ: SNTI) reported Phase 1 data for SENTI-202 in relapsed/refractory hematologic malignancies, with a 71% overall response rate across evaluable patients, including complete remissions and MRD negativity UroGen Pharma (NASDAQ: URGN) presented new patient-reported outcomes at AUA2025 showing that UGN-102 maintained bladder function, symptom burden, and quality of life in low-grade intermediate-risk NMIBC patients, reinforcing i Portage Biotech (NASDAQ: PRTG) reported preclinical data showing PORT-7, a selective A2B receptor inhibitor, outperformed anti-PD1 therapy in a mesothelioma model, with combination treatment further enhancing efficacy and prom CG Oncology (NASDAQ: CGON) presented Phase 3 BOND-003 Cohort C data at AUA2025 showing cretostimogene grenadenorepvec achieved a 75.5% complete response rate in high-risk BCG-unresponsive NMIBC, with durable responses lasting ADMA Biologics (NASDAQ: ADMA) announced FDA approval of its yield enhancement process, which increases production yields by approximately 20% from the same starting plasma volume, improving manufacturing efficiency. Tharimmune (NASDAQ: THAR) announced FDA feedback indicating no additional clinical trials are needed before submitting a 505(b)(2) NDA for TH104, a buccal film formulation of nalmefene designed for rapid absorption and potenti

Biotech Stock Pre-Market Updates

What are the key pre-market updates for biotech stocks? Galmed Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: GLMD) announced it has signed a binding term sheet with Entomus s.r.o. for a license agreement to develop and commercialize a proprietary Self-Emulsifying Drug Delivery System (SEDDS) that enables sublingual abso Portage Biotech (NASDAQ: PRTG) reported confirmatory preclinical data showing that PORT-7 (TT-4), a selective adenosine A2B receptor inhibitor, outperformed anti-PD1 antibody treatment in a murine mesothelioma model. The combination of PORT-7 a CG Oncology (NASDAQ: CGON) announced that Phase 3 BOND-003 Cohort C data for cretostimogene grenadenorepvec monotherapy was presented at the 2025 AUA Annual Meeting. In high-risk NMIBC patients unresponsive to BCG, the study showed a 75.5% comp Merck KGaA (NYSE: MRK) and SpringWorks Therapeutics (NASDAQ: SWTX) announced a definitive agreement for Merck KGaA to acquire SpringWorks for US$47 per share in cash, valuing the company at approximately US$3.9bn in equity and US$3.4bn in enter Biohaven (NYSE: BHVN) announced an agreement with Oberland Capital Management LLC for an investment of up to US$600m, with an initial US$250m tranche set to be funded by 30 April 2025. ADMA Biologics (NASDAQ: ADMA) announced FDA approval of its innovative yield enhancement production process. This innovative process has demonstrated an ability to increase production yields by approximately 20% from the same starting plasma vo

Biotech Stock Updates

We focus to look at key drivers of biotech stocks' price movement on 25 April 2025. Summit Therapeutics (NASDAQ: SMMT) shares closed down 36% at US$23.47 despite China approving Akeso’s ivonescimab (AK112) as a first-line lung cancer monotherapy after a Phase 3 trial showed superior progression-free Molecular Partners (NASDAQ: MOLN) shares traded up 22% at US$5.12 after MP0712, a ²¹²Pb-labeled Radio-DARPin targeting DLL3 for small-cell lung cancer, demonstrated strong preclinical efficacy and safety, with first- VYNE Therapeutics (NASDAQ: VYNE) reported that the FDA verbally informed VYNE Therapeutics that it had placed a clinical hold on the company’s Phase 1b study evaluating VYN202 for treating moderate-to-severe plaque p Acrivon Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ACRV) will present preclinical data at AACR 2025 showing how ACR-2316 a clinical-stage, AP3-enabled WEE1/PKMYT1 inhibitor drives potent single-agent tumor cell death by inducing mitotic BriaCell Therapeutics (NASDAQ: BCTX) priced a US$13.8m public offering of 3.1m units at US$4.50 each, with each unit consisting of one common share and one warrant exercisable at US$5.25. The company intends to use t Lexaria Bioscience (NASDAQ: LEXX) announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with a single institutional investor for the purchase and sale of 2.0m shares of common stock at a purchase price of US$1.00 Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: CYCC) issued a US$0.15 per share quarterly dividend payable on 1st May to shareholders recorded by 29th April, the ex-dividend date. Separately, Cyclacel Pharmaceuticals has been gra

Global Biotech Weekly

This week, we will focus on the critical near-term catalysts anticipated in the immediate term over the next two months. Nektar Therapeutics (NASDAQ: NKTR) is a biotechnology company with a market cap of about US$196m and a cash balance of approximately US$179m. The company has a history of developi NKTR runs two separate Phase 2b trials with rezpegaldesleukin (LY3471851), an IL-2 pathway agonist. One trial (REZOLVE-AA) targets severe to very severe alopecia areata (AA), with Lyra Therapeutics (NASDAQ: LYRA) is developing therapies for chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS), a highly prevalent inflammatory disease. The company has a market cap of around US$26m a The Phase 3 ENLIGHTEN II trial is evaluating LYR-210 in surgically naïve patients with CRS. This study resumed enrollment on 25 April 2023, and is expected to complete enrollment Theriva Biologics (NYSE: TOVX) is a micro-cap clinical-stage company focused on oncolytic virus therapies, with a market cap of approximately US$5.6m. The company has limited cash The VIRAGE trial is a Phase 2b/3 clinical study of VCN-01 in patients with metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), a cancer with extremely poor prognosis. The drug hol

金牛至今秋

《紅藥丸雜誌》專欄羅耕〈財經DNA〉2025年4月25日金牛至今秋 金價升進3字頭後始趨波動，無他，說驚通脹但通脹跌，金升之初雖有基本面，但現漸脫離並已始泡沫化。泡沫本義是愈升愈急，最終偏離基本而爆，問題是幾時。  跟1980年代比較的拼圖更新過後，可見現將結束第二段升浪，時為一、兩週內；第一升浪為2011至15年熊市後的2016至20年。第三或最後升浪勢必急勁，多於一、兩季內完成。圖料尾浪將為時一季至8月底。那幅度呢？   從來拼圖度時間準過度空間。今天通脹沒如1980年般失控，會否呈此尖頂成疑。然則目前調整確未必太深，料跌盡五、七百元。至於8月終極頂，目測較有把握為5,500元，再高則可遇不可求。這類終極高/低，通常見到開價亦做不到。   泡爆以後，跌回來亦以3,000元為底，故此前買者別恐；當然，無息收是另回事。 羅耕 [email protected]

Biotech Stock Updates

We focus to look at key drivers of biotech stocks' price movement on 23 April 2025.Ensysce Biosciences (NASDAQ: ENSC) received a USPTO Notice of Allowance for a patent covering composition and method claims for PF9001, a methadone prodrug using its TAAP and MPAR technologies to improve safety in opioid use disorder treatment. Shares closed up 96% at US$3.67.

Global Biotech Weekly

This week, we will focus on the critical near-term catalysts anticipated in summer 2025, particularly emphasizing those expected to materialize in the immediate term.InflaRx N.V. (NASDAQ:IFRX) is a Germany-based biopharmaceutical company focused on developing monoclonal antibodies that target activation products of the complement system, aiming to treat life-threatening inflammatory diseases. Its lead asset, IFX-1, is an intravenously administered anti-C5a monocThe ongoing Phase 2a basket trial of INF904, which began dosing in December 2024, is evaluating safety, pharmacokinetics, and potential signs of clinical benefit in 75 patients - 45 with chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) and 30 with HS. This open-label, multi-center trial consists of a 28-day treaLisata Therapeutics (NASDAQ:LSTA) is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company focused on developing innovative therapies for advanced solid tumors and other serious diseases. The company’s lead program, certepetide (LSTA1), is being investigated in the Phase 2a BOLSTER trial for the treatment of intrThe BOLSTER trial is a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized Phase 2a study being conducted at multiple centers in the U.S. It includes two cohorts: patients with previously untreated CCA and those who have progressed following first-line therapy. Following accelerated enrollment, the first-lNuvalent (NASDAQ:NUVL) is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, focused on developing small molecule kinase inhibitors for patients with genetically defined cancers. Founded in 2019, the company has built a pipeline targeting key oncogenic drivers, incThe ARROS-1 study is a pivotal, registrational-intent, dose escalation and expansion trial assessing the safety, tolerability, and efficacy of zidesamtinib. The trial includes both TKI-naïve and TKI-pretreated patients across five expansion cohorts, with Phase 1 focused on determining the recommende

兩操作位

《紅藥丸雜誌》專欄羅耕〈財經DNA〉2025年4月18日兩操作位 七年前後，又是特朗普，又是關稅戰，美股又是1月見頂，又是次季挫。縮命？  特朗普上屆時並無一埋位即開戰，而是拖至2018年才打，故時差七年而非八年。七年前後之別，在於當年之前並無孳息曲線倒掛，當年沒有衰退，失業率還在下跌。今舖截然不同，故當年無熊不等於今舖無，當年首個跌浪僅逾一成，今已超過兩成。 短線睇，也許4、5月間應完成首輪造腳，恰巧另些拼圖也有此預示。至於下半年V彈也在預計之中，但即使當年無熊調整也衰收尾呈M字回落，今舖看來只有更劣，起碼彈不易破頂，跌則更易穿底，儘管今年全年埋單計也許似大上落多於失重直落。   縱貿戰最終縮窄至僅中美兩國打，殺傷力亦不低。對食勢者而言，今年的操作位看來仍僅立夏、立冬各一。   羅耕 [email protected]

Biotech Stock Updates

We focus to look at key drivers of biotech stocks' price movement on 11 April 2025.Future Pak has made two cash-and-CVR offers to buy all Theratechnologies (NASDAQ: THTX) shares, most recently proposing US$3.51 to US$4.50 per share. The deal values Theratechnologies at up to US$255m. Future Pak says the bid is fully financed and could be wrapped up in 4-6 weeks, but so far has recPalatin Technologies (NYSE American: PTN) received notice that NYSE will commence delisting proceedings after the company failed to regain compliance with stockholders’ equity requirements by the 10 April 2025 deadline. Shares closed down 60% at US$0.17.Recursion Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: RXRX) shares rose due to the FDA’s move to reduce animal testing, which could accelerate the adoption of AI drug discovery platforms. Shares closed up 28% at US$5.76.Scilex (NASDAQ: SCLX) announced that it will effect a reverse stock split of its outstanding shares of common stock at a ratio of 1-for-35, to be effective as of 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on 15 April 2025. Additionally, D. Boral Capital downgraded Scilex from Buy to Hold. Shares closed down 22% at US$Oncolytics Biotech (NASDAQ: ONCY) signed a US$20m share purchase agreement with Alumni Capital to support clinical development. Shares closed up 26% at US$0.62.Conduit Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: CDT) announced two new patents for tapinarof, including a dual active cocrystal that combines the drug with a complementary drug substance to address key patient needs in inflammatory skin conditions. Shares closed down 15% at US$0.91.Argenx SE (NASDAQ: ARGX) shares closed up 6% at US$580.94 following FDA approval of the VYVGART Hytrulo prefilled syringe for self-injection in treating generalized myasthenia gravis and chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy.Shuttle Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: SHPH) filed a provisional patent application with the USPTO for PSMA-targeted PARP inhibitor conjugates, advancing its precision cancer therapy platform. Shares closed down 12% at US$0.37.Scotiabank maintained a Buy rating on Zai Lab (NASDAQ: ZLAB) and set a price target of US$55.00. Shares closed up 21% at US$29.54.Venus Concept (NASDAQ: VERO) agreed to sell 386,700 shares at US$4.06 each in a registered direct offering led by H.C. Wainwright, expected to raise approximately US$1.5m for general corporate purposes. Shares closed up 6% at US$4.31.

Global Biotech Weekly

This week, we highlight key PDUFA and regulatory catalysts for the next 6 months.Verastem (NASDAQ: VSTM) is a late-stage oncology company with a market cap of approximately US$227m and a float of 30.33m shares. As of year-end 2024, it reported US$88.8m in cash and investments, with a pro forma balance of US$151.3m following debt refinancing and equity issuance. Despite a signifiThe company’s lead program the combination of avutometinib (RAF/MEK clamp) and defactinib (FAK inhibitor) targets KRAS mutant recurrent low-grade serous ovarian cancer (LGSOC). The New Drug Application (NDA) for this combo therapy was accepted by the FDA under the accelerated approval pathway and grAbeona Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ABEO) is a clinical-stage biotech company with a market cap of approximately US$214m and a float of 32.13m shares. As of 31 December 2024, the company reported US$98.1m in cash, short-term investments, and restricted cash, an increase from US$52.6m a year earlier. This pAbeona’s lead program, pz-cel (prademagene zamikeracel), is an autologous, COL7A1 gene-corrected epidermal sheet therapy in development for recessive dystrophic epidermolysis bullosa (RDEB), a devastating genetic skin disorder. The BLA is under FDA priority review, with a PDUFA date of 29 April 2025Outlook Therapeutics (NASDAQ: OTLK) is a development-stage biopharmaceutical company with a market cap of approximately US$41m and a float of 22.54m shares. The company is pre-revenue, reporting an annual net loss of nearly US$74m, and holds about US$6.6m in cash, suggesting a need for additional caONS-5010 / LYTENAVA is currently under review by the U.S. FDA, with a Class 2 resubmission of its BLA accepted on 28 February 2025, and a new PDUFA date set for 27 August 2025. The resubmission follows a CRL issued in August 2023 and includes updated CMC data and full results from the pivotal NORSE

又大蕭條？

《紅藥丸雜誌》專欄羅耕〈財經DNA〉2025年4月11日又大蕭條？ 美股日前在關稅背景下大冧，坊間都在跟大蕭條比，包括美股。  美股在1929股災前P/E達30倍許，而兩個月前見頂時僅25倍許，還未及當年。據NBER紀錄美國衰退始自1929年8月，股市9月見頂，而斯姆特霍利關稅法則遲至1930年6月中才生效。顯然，關稅導致股災、大蕭條之說，在時序上完全站不住腳。 追本溯源，若未曾長升泡沫過又哪來股災？比較兩段歷史，皆先有呆滯十幾年，再有咆哮的十年，分別在於2010年代有量寬水浸市，升得靚，而咆哮1920年代則無。1920年代後期，歷史尚短的美股經歷首度瘋癲，相對於九十二年後則市場成熟得多。   當年有連翻政策錯誤，今天則有科技突破利好，解釋了緣何今不是大蕭條跌市；而如圖所見，道指事實上亦沒重蹈當年的覆轍。宜慎妨妖言惑眾。   羅耕 [email protected]

Biotech Stock Updates

We focus to look at key drivers of biotech stocks' price movement on 4 April 2025.Renovaro Biosciences (NASDAQ:RENB) announced that Predictive Oncology (NASDAQ: POAI) terminated their merger agreement, which Renovaro claims is a breach of binding agreements. Renovaro is demanding compliance with the deal, including an exclusive license agreement, and may pursue legal action if unNeuroOne Medical (NASDAQ: NMTC) announced the pricing of an US$8 million underwritten registered public offering of 16m shares of its common stock for US$0.50 per share. Shares closed down 45% at US$0.48.Sarepta Therapeutics (NASDAQ: SRPT) reported that an independent data monitoring committee reviewed safety data for ELEVIDYS after EU regulators flagged liver failure concerns. The committee upheld a favorable benefit-risk profile, allowing paused trials to continue. Sarepta and Roche will submit fiSangamo Therapeutics (NASDAQ: SGMO) licensed its STAC-BBB AAV capsid to Eli Lilly for CNS disease treatments, securing an US$18 million upfront fee and potential milestone payments up to US$1.4 billion, plus tiered royalties on future sales. Shares closed up 6% at US$0.66.Dynavax Technologies (NASDAQ: DVAX) filed preliminary proxy materials ahead of its 2025 annual meeting, highlighting ongoing strategy execution and nominating four independent directors (Brent MacGregor, Scott Myers, Lauren Silvernail, and Elaine Sun) for reelection. Shares closed down 2% at US$12.6Arvinas (NASDAQ: ARVN) reported first-in-human Phase 1 data for ARV-102, showing it was well tolerated and achieved robust, dose-dependent LRRK2 degradation in CSF and blood, supporting continued development in Parkinson’s and related neurodegenerative diseases. Shares closed down 5% at US$6.56.OS Therapies (NASDAQ: OSTX) received a Buy rating and a US$19.00 price target from Lake Street. Shares closed down 9% at US$1.4.

債市測股

《紅藥丸雜誌》專欄羅耕〈財經DNA〉2025年4月4日債市測股 早輪還講金髮女郎，如今市跌如此，終於想起衰退，進而醒起孳息曲線倒掛。  倒掛測衰之所以教人氣憤，還因訊號太早兼不準時──領先四至六季且誤差大，但這卻是其正宗本質。等到衰退埋身，不少人早已忘記了這訊號，甚至已認定失準。   須知這倒掛不是普通一個經濟指標，而是集全球最有眼光最有錢的債市看法──最叻的炒手最大的盤，都在債而非股。債市睇到達四至六季，股市只睇到一、兩季。   長短息差測美股，要測按年變幅；附圖更新過後時差修正至兩年，短線有偏差，但大方向尚可。圖料今年美股要按年跌好幾成；以坊間兩成為熊界，這無疑是熊市。   較諸之前熊市，今次（藍線）所料的為時不短，且料跌幅不小。債佬一早睇到，只是股佬轉了熊市仍能保持樂觀。 羅耕 [email protected]

Global Biotech Weekly

This week, we highlight key Phase 3 catalysts of biotech companies expected over the next six months. Gyre Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: GYRE) has a market cap of US$846M, with cash reserves of approximately US$75.3 million. The company has yet to generate product revenue and reported a modest net loss Hydronidone is in a fully enrolled Phase 3 trial (NCT05115942) for chronic hepatitis B-associated liver fibrosis in China. This antifibrotic agent targets TGF-β signaling, a central pathway in fibro Mineralys Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: MLYS) is a mid-cap biotech with a market cap of US$719M and roughly US$294 million in cash. The company’s lead candidate is lorundrostat, a selective aldosterone Lorundrostat is being evaluated in uncontrolled and resistant hypertension in the Launch-HTN Phase 3 trial. Topline data showed statistically significant reductions in systolic blood pressure with t PolyPid Ltd. (NASDAQ: PYPD) has a market cap of US$27.8M and is focused on developing localized drug-delivery systems to prevent surgical site infections. The company operates with limited cash and D-PLEX100 is being studied in the SHIELD II Phase 3 trial to prevent abdominal surgical site infections. The trial completed enrollment as of March 2025, with topline data expected in Q2 2025. The p Lyra Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: LYRA) is a micro-cap biotech (US$9.3M market cap) developing therapies for chronic rhinosinusitis. The company operates with significant cash constraints and has repo

東升西降？

《紅藥丸雜誌》專欄〈財經DNA〉2025年3月28日東升西降？ 敝欄由報紙搬到這裏，且看可撐幾耐。近月講東升西降，謂美股升夠輪到亞洲。 無反對的，美股貴到離譜自要調整，而中港這邊殘得過分可彈。然而西升十年，東降也已十年，背後不無基本因素：近有東邊樓跌去槓桿有排衰，遠的有大國囂張，西方去之。這十年間大國經濟增長直線向下，AI抄得幾勁也難阻世界工廠生意流失。   行之有效的A股拼圖預料確在趨升，但拉勻年均數個巴仙，扣通脹後原地踏步。盛轉衰初，股市多會轉移陣地，由美轉歐，由歐轉亞。但隨着敗象漸出，轉無可轉，終歸也是避險收場。圖料今年後期A股似要跟外圍轉弱（框），儘管跌幅相對有限。   全球持續狂印銀紙，各地股市水漲船高，持續橫行的股市已是大輸家。什麼東升西降，還好意思大聲疾呼。   羅耕 [email protected]

Global Healthcare Weekly

In our global healthcare weekly, we focus on key stock catalysts for biotech companies before April 2025. NewAmsterdam Pharma Company N.V. (NASDAQ: NAMS) is a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company focused on developing oral, non-statin medications aimed at reducing the risk of cardiovascular A critical upcoming catalyst for NewAmsterdam is the topline data from its pivotal Phase 3 TANDEM trial, evaluating the fixed-dose combination (FDC) of obicetrapib and ezetimibe in adult patient Gyre Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: GYRE) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on research and clinical development of protease therapeutics to address unmet medical needs in disorders of the comp A pivotal catalyst for Gyre Therapeutics is the topline data readout anticipated in early 2025 from its Phase 3 clinical trial evaluating hydronidone for chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-associated liv Immuron Limited (NASDAQ: IMRN) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing polyclonal antibodies to address unmet medical needs, with research and development activi A key upcoming catalyst for Immuron is the topline data readout expected in April 2025 for its Phase 2 clinical study of Travelan. The study, which aims to evaluate the efficacy of Travelan in p

Global Healthcare Weekly

In our global healthcare weekly, our focus turns to finding key stock catalysts for biotech companies expected in November and December 2024.Autolus Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ: AUTL) a London-based biotech company with a US$1.19 billion market cap, focuses on developing engineered T-cell therapies for hematological cancers. Its lead product candidate, Obe-cel (AUTO1), is designed for B-cell Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (B-ALL). AUTO1 has rObe-cel is an autologous CAR T-cell therapy that targets CD19, aiming to deliver high specificity with reduced treatment-related toxicity. Data presented at EHA and additional data expected at ASCO in 2024 have shown promising response rates and durability in patients. This upcoming PDUFA decision iTrevi Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRVI) a company with a market cap of US$222 million, focuses on developing therapies for serious neurologically mediated conditions. Haduvio, its lead product, is being evaluated in a Phase 2b trial for treating chronic cough in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), The Phase 2b CORAL study evaluates Haduvio’s efficacy as a potential anti-tussive agent, specifically for chronic cough associated with IPF. Following promising Phase 2a findings, this larger study is expected to yield interim data in late 2024, with topline data projected during the first half 2025Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (NASDAQ: PBYI) with a market cap of approximately US$149 million, is advancing its portfolio in oncology, primarily focusing on small-cell lung cancer (SCLC). The firm’s lead drug candidate, Alisertib, is now in a Phase 2 trial targeting SCLC, where it has demonstrated diseThe ongoing Phase 2 ALISCA-Lung1 trial explores the efficacy of Alisertib at a 30mg dose for SCLC. Previously presented data at ASCO showed an overall response rate of 9.5% and a disease control rate of 81%. Additional interim data, expected in Q4 2024, will further clarify Alisertib’s potential impCardiff Oncology Inc. (NASDAQ: CRDF) valued at US$135.7 million, is advancing therapies for difficult-to-treat cancers. Its lead candidate, CRDF-004, targets metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) and is currently in a Phase 2 trial. Cardiff’s cash reserves of US$48.3 million supports continued trial pCRDF-004 combines Onvansertib with standard-of-care therapies to enhance therapeutic response in mCRC. Early data from Phase 1b showed favorable safety and efficacy, making this combination encouraging in a high-need area. Upcoming data in H2 2024 will be critical to validate its impact on mCRC, wheQuince Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: QNCX) is a small biotech company with a market cap of US$47.2 million, primarily developing EryDex for Ataxia-Telangiectasia (A-T), a rare neurodegenerative disease. The firm recently lifted an IND hold and initiated dosing for its Phase 3 NEAT trial in June 2024, EryDex is designed to modulate immune responses and reduce neuroinflammation, targeting the specific complications of A-T. The Phase 3 trial will assess the efficacy and safety of EryDex over an extended period, positioning it as a potential disease-modifying therapy. The Q4 2025 data readout would

Global Healthcare Weekly

In our global healthcare weekly, we focus on identifiying key stock catalysts for biotech companies in the fourth quarter this week.Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated (NASDAQ: CORT) is pharmaceutical company focusing on the discovery, development, and commercialization of drugs that modulate cortisol activity. With a market capitalization of US$5.1 billion and an estimated cash balance of US$523.5 million, Corcept is best known fRelacorilant has received orphan drug designations (ODD) from both the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Commission (EC) for the treatment of Cushing’s syndrome, which provides regulatory incentives and extended market exclusivity if approved. The GRADIENT trial focuses on patMarinus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNS) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing treatments for rare genetic epilepsies and seizure disorders. With a market capitalization of US$101.6 million, Marinus has a limited cash runway of 2.6 months. The firm’s approved prEnrollment for the TrustTSC trial was completed in May 2024 with 129 participants, and the final patient visit occurred in September. The trial is designed to assess seizure reduction, with the goal of demonstrating a 25% improvement in seizure frequency compared to placebo. A low discontinuation raOmega Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: OMGA) is a biopharmaceutical company with a focus on using mRNA therapeutics as programmable epigenetic medicines through its OMEGA Epigenomic Programming platform. With a market capitalization of US$58.46 million and a cash reserve of $30.4 million, Omega is in the The MYCHELANGELO I trial is progressing with positive early data. In March 2024, Omega reported that OTX-2002 showed consistent dose-dependent pharmacokinetics, no dose-limiting toxicities, and effective downregulation of MYC expression in patients across the first three monotherapy dose levels. Not

Global Healthcare Weekly

In our global healthcare weekly, we focus on identifiying key stock catalysts for biotech companies this week. Atara Biotherapeutics (NASDAQ: ATRA) with a market cap of around $41.8 million, focuses on developing T-cell immunotherapies for cancers and autoimmune diseases. The firm’s lead candidate,

脫鈎大實驗　上風由誰佔

《紅藥丸雜誌》專欄〈一名經人〉2025年5月20日脫鈎大實驗　上風由誰佔 中美關稅戰雖暫降溫，但其實兩者勢必續脫鈎。最終誰佔上風？  答此一問，若齋吹無根據，結論未必扎實。要有證據甚或數據，難免要溯諸歷史。一如染髮，可分兩個層次：立即脫鈎vs逐漸脫鈎，或快vs慢。先看快的自然實驗。   立即脫鈎就如上月般變相禁運，但僅個餘月且雙方不少人事先有所準備提前買賣，故看不到效果。至於再對上一次變相禁運的自然實驗，就是疫情間的封城。那次所見，即使有、無封城的國家，幾乎所有經濟數據都大插水。無封城的，國內買賣沒怎受阻，經濟仍插水的背後很可能是外圍傳導進的。立即脫鈎的結果，概是這樣全方位大跌。   至於逐漸脫鈎的自然實驗，其實早自十餘年前起已開始。大陸生產遷移至東南亞，早於海嘯後不久已因成本差距而漸普遍，而其（也許假的）GDP增長亦隨之直線下跌，反觀同期（十餘年來）美國GDP增長卻維持3%趨勢增長。這種不對稱之象怎解釋？   上週已提到一個美國消費等於數十至百個國家總和，若美國不買，頃刻確難轉位；但十餘年來中國已非單一大供應商。在單一買家對眾多賣家下，誰佔上風不言而喻。   賣家可遍地開花，但買家要有錢才行，難以話有就有。是故打生死大仗兩敗俱傷，但若打拖拉持久戰，則賣方顯然吃虧；何況論經濟週期，美在高峯中在低谷。   羅家聰 [email protected]

A Stronger Yuan Won’t Fix America’s Trade Deficits

In politics, scapegoating is the go-to move to avoid voter backlash. The US, drowning in a record US$140.5 billion trade deficit in March 2025, per Trading Economics, needs a villain. Forget blaming America’s sluggish productivity or sky-high wages—point the finger at China’s currency controls, and

以眾不敵寡　怎去美國化

《紅藥丸雜誌》專欄〈一名經人〉2025年5月13日以眾不敵寡　怎去美國化 貿戰開打，港官爛豪氣地跟共黨口水尾聲言另覓市場。廠商當然知道是另一回事，談何容易。坊間亂計死數，以直接出口美國佔總出口從而推論影響小，但錯得離譜。  即使不計眾所周知的洗產地和走私等漏計部分（也不小的），在當今買家市場下，真實的潛在購買力還在於實際消費──只有老老實實地會花的錢，才有資格說買不買、買自己定買人家，而買人家的話買哪處。是故，比較實力還得從GDP裏的消費看。   按唾手可得的維基最新數據，美國消費佔全球的三成九，大致符合美元在SWIFT的佔比。這是什麼概念？即使全球排第二的歐盟廿七國和第三的中國即共28國合計，消費也不及一個美國。若將全球175個有消費數據的國家由尾計起，則由尾倒數共165國合計的消費也不及一個美國。不難想像，若只計中、高檔消費，上述佔比只會更高。   佔全球4%人口的美國之所以可消費近全球四成，皆因美國任印全球都要的美元。要另覓市場就是另覓買家，或另覓一個任印全球都接受的鈔票國家，且不只這樣簡單，還得要有回收體系如股市、債市等可讓收錢方儲起資金投資賺回報，以便日後再買。   這樣一條龍的派發、回收循環系統，誰可頃刻取代？美元取代英鎊，也經兩次大戰花半世紀。即使美元數十載後失地位，你我縱仍在亦垂垂老矣。   羅家聰 [email protected]

China’s Economy: A Tale of Two Realities

Beneath the dazzling neon lights of Beijing and the bustling commerce of Guangzhou, China’s economy shows a perplexing duality. Despite the reported significant economic headwinds, anecdotal accounts suggest a level of prosperity among citizens. Significant economic challenges are present, but rece “Blondie in China,” an Australian content creator, is This begs the question: Why do on-the-ground foreigne China is grappling with deflation, with consumer pric This modes deflation, however, translates to a more a To understand the cost of living in Chinese Mainland, Elsewhere in Guizhou, a second-tier city in China, Am Thanks to lower costs for essentials like food and ho Government interventions have also been crucial. In 2 Moreover, the fabric of Chinese society is woven with Amidst economic challenges, a culture of sacrifice ha The apparent discrepancy between the narratives of ec Young professionals in these cities, frequently benef China’s economic challenges are always there. Back th China’s economic narrative, once defined by relentles

Urban legends about option positions

When options are mentioned in the market, the first thing that comes to mind for many option novices or investors who do not understand options at all is: option position changes. They think that the first thing to learn about options is to observe option position changes, so as to know the deployme

債爆沒出現　學說錯經年

《紅藥丸雜誌》專欄〈一名經人〉2025年5月6日債爆沒出現　學說錯經年 坊間大談美國如何財赤嚴峻、美債爆煲，但近十季以來，十年期債息仍在3¼至4¾這厘半間上落，所謂爆煲不知從何說起。名著《今時不同往日》（This Time is Different）兩名作者曾點算數十國家逾百年數據，指債佔GDP一旦逾90%經濟增長將急轉直下。  美國海嘯前的國債佔GDP低於60%，海嘯後一躍至高於90%，疫後更逾100%。但事實上，美國實質GDP增長趨勢（以長線計，別抝個別衰退季度）自本世紀起於3%橫行，不似趨升但未見趨跌；之前八、九十年代是4%。這樣微減1%都算急轉直下？   兩名作者只是做歷史點算，沒理論框架在後，即那90%不是由經濟理論推導出來，故錯不奇。絕大多數先進體的債佔GDP目前已逾100%，日本的更已超標三分一世紀。聲稱要爆但幾十年仍安然無恙，應否反思一下到底是純粹時辰未到還是這說法有錯？   全球貿易和金融長期擴張，尤後者包括新系統（如幣圈）冒起，統統都需要美元。美元供應需持續增長自然不在話下，但不是印了就天跌落去到不同貿易、金融領域的。假使美國人尤美國政府不對外進口，美元怎往外輸送？華府不停買，財赤自然不斷有；錢是IOU，美元不停印，債自然不斷升   若這遊戲停，全球經貿增長都會停；若美債爆，大多數人財富都歸零。眾持份者，會否讓此發生？何況有權叫停的是買家──美國。   羅家聰 [email protected]

經濟學面前　AI僅量變

《紅藥丸雜誌》專欄〈一名經人〉2025年4月29日經濟學面前　AI僅量變 社長問道，既然說到AI這麼萬能，能算盡供求，那日後是否可取代傳統價格機制，毋須以之為訊息傳導工具？答案顯然是否定的：一家之AI豈能全知？不知就要試價。  數個月前當AI股價仍處高峯時，不少人為了合理化其巨額投資而神化AI的實力；經歷這幾個月後，開始清醒點了。回顧人類歷史，由人力手作到工具使用，到機械化、電動化、電腦化……統統都是技術突破。這些都大大改變了生活，但經濟模型不變。   經濟最基本框架是供、求，所涉的度向是價、量，要了解的是（生）產、消（費）和交易，就是這麼簡單；管他有、無技術，科技高、低，都是這個框架。解這些難題，不外於人性需求無限和物資有限下作優化，AI會影響求解，但無改變這優化大框架。   AI可短時間內獲得並處理大量資料，只是快和多得很，但跟人肉法無本質分別。這無改變模型框架，只是加進新變項，甚至視乎情況連變項亦毋須增加而只微調參數。例如AI短時間內大增生產或提供服務，這只改變生產函數，成本低了僅屬求解結果。   上次科技革命在1990年代末，上世紀末的十五年美國GDP按年增長平均3.4%，但本世紀初頭十五年僅2.0%，增長不升反跌。這兩段時期的失業率分別5.9%和6.4%，也沒結構大升。好的框架經得起歲月洗禮，別隨意揚言今時不同往日。   羅家聰 [email protected]

貿戰若雙損　緣何戰不斷

《紅藥丸雜誌》專欄〈一名經人〉2025年4月22日貿戰若雙損　緣何戰不斷 和雙贏，戰雙輸，打真軍、貿戰皆然。話雖如此，人類史上戰爭卻從無間斷。  難道那些勸停戰的諾獎得主都是錯的嗎？他們沒錯，經濟學家主要關注經濟效率，及因而達至的柏拉圖最優，但結局並不唯一。設二人若不交易各無所得，交易共得最多10元。那麼各得5元最優，而一得9.99元另一得1仙也最優。惜世上從無公平過。   特式貿戰是啥邏輯呢？顯然是要將本來美國得9其他得1的格局，改變為美國得9.9而其他得0.1。打貿戰的過程肯定效率不高、絕非最優，但打完後可邁向另一最優；打真軍的道理相若。此乃緣何人類明知自相殘殺不好也不斷自相殘殺，是為競爭之本。   柏拉圖最優源於完美競爭的假設，惜這假設現實上從無出現過，正如假設無磨擦力F = ma，但宇宙間根本從無這種絕對真空。除了完美假設太完美外，還有競爭本義──自相殘殺。經濟學不是最愛玩極大化嗎？能毁滅對手全取所有，這不是極大化麼？   貿戰雙輸只是過渡現象，除非永遠處於過渡期，否則放眼長遠，這也可是極大化。貿戰會否不是過渡而是永續下去，一如某些論者指這非手段而是目的？請君看看歷史，人類雖不斷發起戰爭，但沒有單一場戰爭可永打下去。百幾巴仙關稅，總有一邊倒下。   貿戰不符經濟邏輯？愛因斯坦也出錯，誰說諾主一定對。   羅家聰 [email protected]

中國的衰落　撰於經濟學

《紅藥丸雜誌》專欄〈一名經人〉2025年4月15日中國的衰落　撰於經濟學 社長開題：何以中國經濟增長受制。他懷疑是戶口制度作怪。愚見以為應是制度，但不限於戶口。戶口制度最主要妨礙人口流動，但似未見有經濟理論指這極其重要。  中共雖曾有三分一世紀掛羊頭賣狗肉地走資，但歷屆元首敵不過戀棧權位的人性，結果絕對權力使人絕對腐化，官民上下皆貪。經濟主張的貪錢是好事，但大陸是貪污，加上獨裁，哪有經濟效率（非指大陸速度）可言？效率欠佳，自然沒有柏拉圖最優。   去年諾獎正是表揚這制度因素，且更劍指中國；可重溫敝欄剛半年前一文，不贅。中共誤以為壟斷製造、大練晶就可托經濟，殊不知四十年前日本亦然，結果有目共睹。   兩世紀前發起工業革命的英國和卅年前發起科技革命的美國，確有先發經濟甜頭。今輪革命由中國帶頭嗎？還請看看DeepSeek是怎弄出來。雖然各國終會受惠於革命，但只有帶頭的才贏家全取，科學和技術本質如此。   話說回頭，這些革命靠食腦，要自由土壤才能孕育。獨裁暴政下豈能容這些頂尖人才？   羅家聰 [email protected]

蕭條因關稅　是否有理據

Please refer to the traditional Chinese edition.

貿易乃自然　關稅難改變

《紅藥丸雜誌》專欄〈一名經人〉2025年4月1日貿易乃自然　關稅難改變 社長開題全球化vs本土化。全球貿易量在2018年前長升，2018至20年間停滯，而2021、22年回升破頂，但2023、24年又再停滯。圖睇去全球化的證據未很明顯。 經濟學教科書多撐全球化的，因為只要二人供、求並不一模一樣（這很易符合），在一般理論的假設下，某程度貿易是雙贏的──雙方的效用均會提升。以歸納法推之，愈多人參與貿易，愈是多贏的。不過，這柏拉圖最優並無考慮到利益分佈。極端而言，若百人皆多賺一元而一人則多賺百元，雖也屬最優但卻惹起公憤，去全球化就此而生。   此乃金融海嘯後民間主張的去全球化，跟特朗普現搞的剛剛相反。回到剛述例子，美國其實已是賺百元的那君，特主張的是要打殘其伙伴的出口商，進而迫其搬入美國。要是教科書簡化版的「你製你的、我造我的」，則此法不通，儼如中東油井豈能搬走。但若本屬美國製造而昔日將生產綫外移的則也許行得通，因為終端需求始終在美國。   到底美國是拿回還是掠奪，言人人殊。關鍵倒是，若有自身有需求那又豈怕其搶？大不了出口轉內銷，如中共般聲稱內循環。外移得的生產定有原因，關稅可將之打垮，但若計不掂數，還是不會搬進美國的。   由是之故，短線全球化縱會因盛衰而稍有進退，但逾五百年的全球化大勢卻不似會被一人就此扭轉。   羅家聰 [email protected]

外傭限工資　再證搞亂市

《紅藥丸雜誌》專欄〈一名經人〉2025年3月25日外傭限工資　再證搞亂市 社長開題論外傭最低工資。眾所周知，市價是遠高於官價的近五千港元。換言之，最低工資不是廢的，教科書簡單模型指這是外傭求過於供的結果。但供、求又怎定？ 有兩層面，一是大圍，一是取捨。首先是經濟大勢要好，若經濟差則不用談。在大圍有需求的大前提下，需求多少則看僱主自身入息相對外傭入息（即僱主開支），若低過則不用談，若高過則看高出多少，愈多理應愈有需求。外傭的「供」有對稱考慮──若其鄉下經濟夠糟，不用談必有供應。至於供應多寡則看出國收入多出鄉下幾多，而當中又多一重取捨：港人的出價跟其他也聘外傭國家的出價。打後已是實證問題。   當然，這種第二重取捨也適用於僱主：若要請人，也可從外傭或本地鐘點中選擇。然而昔日以時薪計，鐘點遠貴過外傭，故毋須考慮；但今以市價請外傭連機票食住計，也許跟請全職鐘點不差太遠，尤當大圍經濟漸差人浮於事下便更有得比了。結論呢？   大勢所見，結論似是外傭價升、港傭（鐘點）價跌，外傭供應減少而港傭的增加。這幾乎全是入門教科書所料之中：透過流動，兩邊供應趨同（港增外減），價差收窄。新價料仍遠高於五千元之際，結果港經濟差兼不生育下，需求續減，有價無市。於是，政府又再成功實驗胡亂插手搞亂市場。 Cover image from Folli Follie   羅家聰 [email protected]

AI突破恍新猷　經濟論證仍舊酒

社長開題「人工智慧和數據革命下的新現代經濟學」。上網找，即見今屆諾獎得主Daron Acemoglu研究不少。未揭曉前，還打趣說既然今屆醫學、物理、化學獎都涉AI，恐怕經濟亦然。果然如此。剛半年前，Acemoglu發表題為「The Simple Macroeconomics of AI」的工作論文。其實對於不知者而言，AI才要「新」和「現代」的經濟學。不過，學術最高境界不是動輒有新事物、新現象便要新理論，反而是要將之收納於現有框架，如數學和物理界皆有類似的大統一理論架構，因為這樣的理論才是跨時空永恆真理。 Acemoglu並無發明什麼新理論描述AI，模型還是當代宏觀經濟常用的整體均衡，只是將生產函數較為精細地拆開資本和勞動兩瓣，並各自引入任務為本的生產力模式，再容許各類（包括自動化、人機互補、省成本、省人手）AI以不同模式改變這生產力。到最後，AI的角色還是將基礎的人力、物力（資本）投入谷大成為產出，而所量度的，還是全要素生產力（TFP）。當然，AI在各類生產的模式和程度各異，要分開計再總合，這要用上Hulten理論，亦即加總各類生產力的權重正是各類生產的名義GDP佔比。 Hulten理論驟看直觀、常識而已，但其推論也需一翻功夫，而若欠此理論亦無法將TFP拆開引入各類AI計再加總。這正如宏觀理論的微觀基礎要靠Arrow-Debreu理論，其加總模式類似。由此可見，在經濟理論或模型架構上，AI跟歷來科技突破本質一樣，都是將相同投入變得更多產出（或減少投入得相同產出），縱影響生產力的機制有異。 學理上毋須新意，實證上亦不驚人。據Acemoglu數據分析，AI在未來十年於TFP貢獻不逾0.53至0.66%，聊勝於無──此非出自泛泛之輩，而是專研AI的諾獎得主。直觀而言，幾十年前的日本和十幾年來的中國，AI皆屬尖端級數。不過兩國實質GDP增長皆長年偏低或趨跌；日本TFP自1990年起增長歸零，中國的則自十年前起轉跌。 回到AI最強的美國，效Acemoglu以十年計，剔除海嘯六季和疫情八季失常數字，2004/14年美國GDP增長平均2.39%，2014/24年2.55%，可見AI潛在貢獻實在有限。 AI也許顛覆生活，但論經濟則顯然毋須新的理論、模型，甚至效應而言也不新得到哪裏。 羅家聰[email protected]

特首終醒失國際　中東中亞何作為

雜誌社長早前也曾開題點唱施政報告。雖然事隔兩週看似過時，但問君有何重點，恐怕不多人曉，因為讀得囉唆、重點看似很多，結果變得行貨。且從官網取重點單張，繼首堆什麼準確貫徹、強化政府等緊跟共黨路線的必有部分，打後便是國際金融中心、國際航運中心、國際貿易中心、國際航空樞紐、國際醫療創新樞紐、國際專上教育樞紐、國際化文化創產業……看到重點啦？「國際」，正是香港所失去的，長官現在知道了，甚至緊張起來了。至於其標題劈頭謂「齊改革」，乃共黨慣技，因不斷錯，才不斷改。 從上所見，航運、空運、金融，其實都是貿易衍生出來。查本港貿易（進出口和）佔GDP，1984年前在140%，打後一路反覆升至2011年逾360%。隨着大陸經濟轉差，比例由當年高峯跌到2019年暴動的300%以下；2021年曾因外圍需要疫情物資而重上360%，但疫後這兩、三年滿以為復常下卻竟再度跌穿300%，重返廿年前沙士水平。 香港的發達期正是上述1984至2011這近卅年，此乃GDP增長所不能反映的──因後者跌足半世紀，但港人的繁榮幸福感卻跟上述貿易佔GDP直接掛鈎。由此可見，本港的繁華興盛（起碼在認知上）繫於其國際程度，而非經濟增長高低。但可惜的是，國際信任須長年建立，破壞容易建設難，現在長官所覬覦的只是中東和中亞的國際。 然而，中東和中亞無法取代歐美，甚至難以補足。歐美人均水平高，銀紙印出來，可任印讓人人四處買，大量買剩的資金則搞成為金融市場。中東地底雖自動噴油生錢，但人均水平卻低得多，而隨着油價廿年來有波幅無升幅，購買力顯然被通脹長年蠶食；金融方面，則只有剛起步的杜拜。至於中亞則別問了，這是被投資地，而非投資者。 自九七後，香港被迫倚賴大陸。早年大陸具投資價值，但今天顯然已什麼都過剩，香港被迫一味迎上的結果，就是當上邊玩完之際，香港在無兩際對沖下被迫一同玩完。中亞窮，中東精，垂死掙扎式打其主意無異於緣木求魚。知錯肯改固然好過死不悔改，但宜從長線大局觀作準確評估，不宜盲目樂觀，底可以見，但能否回升則難看好。 羅家聰[email protected]

Brazil: High Expenditure Levels Challenge Fiscal Stability

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The publisher of the magazine opened the topic: Government failure of the event fund. As for whether the fund has been awarded or received privately, reporters have yet to verify it. There is no information at all, so we can only make economic analysis. The fund is called the "Cultural and Arts Even

Trump’s Trade Pivot: A Case for Pragmatic Leadership

Victory in a trade dispute is often elusive and hollow, so I don’t credit U.S. President Donald Trump for “winning” against China. Instead, I commend his pragmatic flexibility, a skill that sets him apart in high-stakes diplomacy. In March 2025, when tariff threats on US$200 billion in Chinese goods

三任總統不是夢

「聽其言而觀其行」這句警示，從不適用於政治人物。若要了解特朗普的底蘊，只需要「觀其行」就夠。現年78歲的特朗普曾表示，想三度或四度出任總統並非玩笑，但近日又改口否認正在考慮再次競逐白宮。政客只是投機份子，選不選，還得看屆時的支持度有否勝算。 現在特朗普表態沒有參考意義，一如地球另一端也有人說「N屆不參選」後，卻抵受不住權力的誘惑。幸好美國競選總統的資格，很大程度上是由憲法決定，即使特朗普最後戀棧權力，欲再改口，亦得視乎憲法的制約範圍。 雖說美國現有《第22修正案》限制總統任期，但1951年前只是不成文慣例，國史上亦有羅斯福（Franklin D. Roosevelt）連續四任美國總統，但這例外 1944年限制總統任期再次成為討論焦點，雖然是由共和黨人挑起，但也有不少民主黨人認同國父華盛頓當年以身作則，以八年任期為限，防止暴政抬頭的先例。隨着FDR去世以 如果特朗普欲爭三任總統，理論上至少可循一路去鑽憲法的空子。《第22修正案》僅明確禁止某人「當選」（elected）超過兩屆總統，而不是「繼任」（successi 當然，這種沙盤推演的情況未經憲法檢驗，正反雙方皆引援修正案和條文釋義，支持其論點。至少現在特朗普只是上任百日餘，大有時間扭轉一路下跌的民望。 但是政客的話沒有太多參考價值，特朗普說2028年不參選，有誰會信？ Cover Photo: trumpstore.com

在經濟版圖動盪之間，香港何以自處？——讀《世界新經濟格局下的亞太、中國和香港》

我們應該從哪裡開始理解當下香港所處的世界經濟格局？當美中關係持續緊張、全球產業鏈重組、地緣政治競爭升溫，香港這座長期自信於「全球城市」定位的轉口港，還能否在浪潮之中穩住自身角色？《世界新經濟格局下的亞太、中國和香港》一書，試圖在這個充滿不確定的時代，為我們梳理亞太區域、中國內部經濟政策，以及香港在新格局下的處境與選擇。作者汪康懋從宏觀經濟、國際貿易、區域合作，到金融體系的變動，描繪了一幅充滿張力的亞太經濟藍圖。特別是在美中對抗逐步結構性化、全球供應鏈去風險化（de-risking）的大背景下，香港作為國際金融中心、自由港的優勢，是否還能維持？這不僅是經濟學上的問題，也是關乎香港未來命運的核心提問。

加拿大選舉

加拿大的選舉時間是計算好的結果，卡尼擊敗逼宮的Freeland贏得黨魁，成為連一次大選也沒參加過的新人總理。加拿大大敵當前，國家上下同仇敵愾，恰好成為自由黨洗刷污名反擊保守黨的最好機會。網上各黨支持者皆不斷強調某黨才能代表某團體或族群的利益，而香港人雖然是自由黨下救生艇計劃得益者，但受制於自由黨任內增發學簽和難民簽證，造成申請永居權大塞車，彈盡糧絕下不少香港人轉向支持NDP新民主黨和 Conservative 保守黨。話雖如此，但不要忘記大部份香港人皆非加拿大公民，雖則媒體上聲浪甚大，實際上所能造成的影響也許只是聊勝於無，因為只有公民才有投票權。所謂政黨支持，簡單的投票背後不妨有著複雜的動機，一如錢鍾書所言，「義正詞嚴的叫喊，有時是文學創造力衰退的掩飾，有時是對人生絕望的惱怒，有時是改變職業的試探，有時是中年人看見旁人還是少年的忌妒。」政黨政治和選民各取所需，既是交易也是表達意見，科學與藝術皆有之。考慮投票行為時，可以有以下考慮。規則和框架規則和框架，基本上屬於一些設計上的問題，有什麼的目標則有什麼的制度。設計時要考慮的，是這樣的制度有什麼的目標需要達到。單議席單票 vs 比例代表制就像英國一樣，加拿大所採用的是單議席單票制，全國所有選區，每區一個位，一人一票，最多議員勝出的政黨如果過半數則可有國會控制權。這種選法簡單直接，能給予政黨籌組成執政黨的能力，多數會出現兩黨獨大的情況，因為如果你是選民，必然希望將選票投予最有希望勝出又最和自己政見相近的政黨，如果有三個人爭持不下而選民能從民意調查中預見，第三位的支持者或會再考慮把自己的選票放於更有希望勝選的人身上，人之常情也。這和香港的設計不同，香港所行的是行政主導的政治制度，立法會並不需要決出執政黨，立法會要做的是盡可能在政府提案後多聆聽意見，所以在比例代表制上採用了最大餘額法，其效果更貼近於多議席單票制，務求兼收並蓄各方不同意見，用意亦要限制政黨過大。除此以外，引入功能組別、團體票等也可以把看作是從制度設計中取得所需結果之一，在此不贅。省選 vs 國選當年師從戴高禮教授，教授對黃鶴回教授的一篇區選文章讚譽有加，黃教授於文中用一些Regression Model反證在區議會選舉中勝出可增加立法會選舉的得票。當然，如今立法會重新整理好，百廢待興，市民如何在新的政治環境中，大部份政黨政見相同下投票有待觀察。加拿大有一點和香港不同的是，省選和國選可謂河井不犯，一般而言每省皆有自己不同的保守黨和自由黨，如此類推，其組成和立場並不從屬聯邦政黨。例如安省王福特早前以壓倒性勝出安大略省的選舉，其用意亦是要加強和特朗普議價的能力。聯邦和省之間一向有互相博奕的歷史，一國多省之下各省對於外國勢力或時局可以有不同理解和回應。福特雖然身為安省保守黨之首，但大可以對於博勵治的政策或者競選策略嗤之以鼻。最近保守黨內部對於博勵治的競選策略不滿，福特為其前競選經理公開批評博勵治辯護，只拋下一句：Sometimes the truth hurts「苦口良藥」。可見完全沒有要大利益、競選考慮下的PR發言策略。框架之下，我們可以將不同有影響的因素放在一起，考慮他們長短期的影響。因素之間各有輕重，取決於各省各人不同取向。一般性考慮這一些考慮不論國家和地區皆有影響，當然其他因素於選舉其他方面也可以有影響，下列舉數例。政治左右 – Spatial TheoryA Downs 提出所謂的選舉理論認為政黨皆位列於政治光譜之上，所以當投票時選民只會投予政治光譜上相近的政黨，在Manifesto Project中政黨的選舉主張皆已被表列並數據化，所以用一般的認知所說，加拿大之中NDP/Green屬於左派Bloc Québécois屬於中間較多偏左Liberal 屬於中間稍左Conservative屬於中間偏右People’s Party屬於右派但除此以外，左右兩派並不能准確到捕捉到黨派之間的分別，所謂左右除了在政治經濟學上的取態之外，在加拿大的政治制度中還有聯邦和省自治權中的討論。自由黨可以算是眾多黨派之中最強調聯邦的政黨，其碳稅和聯邦開支以重新分配和支持不同省份為主要政策理念。新民主黨和綠黨比自由黨要稍稍強調省的主權，但因為其主張再分配和環保的政策取向，聯邦依然佔有重要的地位。保守黨的保守主義是小政府，減稅，去除碳稅，發展經濟和商業活動，其中心思想則可被視省重於聯邦的經濟自由主義，這和魁北克黨的要求聯邦政府下放予省更大的自治空間有相同之處。所以在政策主張之上，雖然保守黨和魁黨一樣要求聯邦削權，但在政策取向上法語地區皆有較左傾的取向，而聯邦一向更優待地位獨特的法語地區，例如法區可自決碳稅、有自決申請者能否以法語區作定居地的權利。年齡、性別、參與在加拿大之中，年長的人較多為投票者，各年齡之投票率隨年齡增加而增加。此外，各省的平均年齡皆有不同，草原三省和北三省平均年齡皆較年輕。各黨支持者皆有不同：女性和年輕選民皆會傾向自由黨，新民主黨和綠黨，中年選民傾向保守黨、老年選民則傾向自由黨。根據CBC的一篇報導，男性選民在經濟上較傾向進步性政策（增加有錢人稅率、政府提供更多服務）但文化上則相對保守（減少移民，減少性別多元開放化），此一觀點和女性於經濟和文化上的統一性（完全進步或完全保守）有明顯分別。在宗教和政治上較少討論和爭議，而將注意力和集中力放於傳統家庭觀念和個人自由之上。此外，年齡層上較有意思的是年老的選民更傾向於支持自由黨。自由黨於過去九年在道魯多領導下幾乎將於選舉大敗，其房屋政策和移民政策一直受批評：樓價居高不下，移民過多而其他健康或就業配套不合預期。道魯多曾直言房屋非聯邦政府負責，而又曾言不能讓樓市下跌否則會傷害退休人士的退休大計。移民湧入加上維持政府的福利政策，年老選民有更多理由選投自由黨而非保守黨。https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-housing-responsible-feds-provinces-1.6924290https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-trudeau-house-prices-affordability/地區性考慮各地區因應自己的特定文化和經濟條件，使不同政黨有固定支持者。草原三省 65 席亞爾伯塔、曼尼托伯、薩斯喀徹溫蓮皆為石油農業重鎮，保守黨的取消碳稅、去除監管、減稅等政策主張受這些省份支持。這些省身處於西部，常處於被東部政治中心所制定的政策所控制，他們生活上則傾向自給自足、創業的獨立精神、多農鄉村選民的因素皆使保守黨於少數大城市聚居地（卡加利、愛民頓）之外享有穩定的支持度。聚居兩省 165席安大略和英屬哥倫比亞有較多大城市聚居人口（多倫多、密西沙加於安大略、溫哥華、維多利亞於英屬哥倫比亞），所以這些省份的大城市地區較喜歡支持自由黨或新民主黨等更有社會進步主義取向的政策。新民主黨在上屆政府支持自由黨，令部份支持者覺得被出賣，今屆很可能在美加大戰的大為提下損失大部份議席。除大城市以外，保守黨有一定支持。北三省 3席育空、西北領地、紐納武特皆為大範圍的少人居住的省份，加起來人口約十多萬，主要以原居民為主，只有三席。傳統上為新民主黨和自由黨之爭，因應其尊重少數族裔和文化，以及高度依賴聯邦政府政策支援的歷史。不過因為議席只有一席，CBC在民調上也省得列出來，嗯。基本上一區安省等於整個北三省之一了。https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/西洋省份 32 席Atlantic Canada 對於保守黨可謂難題，主要是因為當地捕魚發達，然而因為捕魚業很看時節氣候的關係，當休漁時大部份漁民都有賴就業保險去維持生活支出，這對於一些其他省份如一年四季都工作就草原三省的畜牧業和石油業造成不公平。加上西洋省份接近於法語區的自由左傾的思想精神，所以當地的基本支持面為傾向於自由黨。當年保守黨削減就業保險曾引起當地漁民不滿。https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/stephen-harper-s-new-employment-insurance-rules-whack-ontario-hard-walkom/article_5f511742-55cc-58e4-9909-51f853fa1431.html魁北克 78席魁省的特定法語地位在自由黨的強勢聯邦主義之下，仍獲得相當大的自由度，而有說法為如自由黨未能於魁省奪得聯邦選舉控制，一般不可能贏得大選。自由黨和魁省甚有淵源，道魯多家族皆出於魁省，蒙特利爾機場是PET “Pierre Elliott Trudeau” Airport。有趣的是，雖然於聯邦選舉上為自由黨和魁黨之省，但於省議會內卻是像安大略省一樣由中間偏右的政黨把持(Coalition Avenir Québec) 魁黨是唯一一個只會在魁省出選的聯邦層面之地區性政黨，雖然打著魁北克地區的旗幟，在支持度一樣暫時輸給自由黨。魁省的結果只能由魁黨或自由黨之間決定，保守黨雖有一定支持度，但不足氣候，其支持度於CBC民調一路從2021看來沒有任何變化。大選特定考慮除一些較靜態的因素決定了卡尼參選前的狀態，在這場選戰中也有一些Valence Issue – 政黨在所關心議題中有能力改變和Spatial Theory 相對的是Valence，也就是在關鍵議題之中哪一個政黨較有能力改變現狀。這是一個在2014年筆者於英國曼城讀碩士時接觸的主流理論。Spatial Theory因為政治光譜和人口資料（包括收入、學歷、性別）決定支持哪一個政黨，這是舊有說法。新一代則傾向於只集中在選民關心的關鍵單一議題，而不會受限於其他非政策性和表達個人政見的投票行為。事實上在現代社會，政黨政治議題不再單一化，人均收入和社會人口流動變化甚大，加上國際社會間不論文化經濟政治軍事交流和討論互為關係，所以一些較靜止而變化少的選民背景資料不再有解釋投票行為的能力。我們可以以心理學中，人在同一時段中所能處理的問題，心理上有限的認知作解釋，為什麼有選民會直接在兩個完全不同的政黨中跳邊，因為政策並非雞牛羊豬，無法計斤論件。投票如同人類的其他行為一樣，並非全然理性深思熟慮。在二零二三年開始，加拿大人早對自由黨積怨甚深，從二零二三年開始一直到二零二五年二月，如果舉行大選，必然是保守黨可取絕對多數。但當特朗普上場後，人們看見加拿大有國難，不計前嫌推選比博勵治更有國際經驗的卡尼上場。卡尼也很懂，在兩場辯論之中穩打穩紮，在競選廣告不斷強調Elbows Up，要保護加拿大的經濟和就業於目前美國的挑戰中，甚少為自由黨往績辯護，強調自己剛上場，不是道魯多。Campaign Strategy – 外敵對內政保守黨的主打並非外交，而是經濟（減稅）和犯罪，博勵治也被批評在外交上不如卡尼。不少保守黨人批評競選政策應要以美國作為主打，這才是選民想聽到的主題。筆者個人認為如外交非強項，博勵治在這等問題上辯論也只會顯出自己相對於卡尼缺乏外交經驗，倒不如寄望於選民不善忘更好。Shy Conservative Voters – 保守黨不受訪在美國大選中，初時民調認為賀錦麗和特朗普不相伯仲，之後發覺有很多保守的支持者（特朗普）一直在民調中被低估。我們也許亦可以說取態鮮明的社會進步政黨如新民主黨、自由黨、魁黨等支持者較樂於接受訪問，現在民調中自由黨雖然領先，但差距難言結果，倒是PolyMarket已成八二之分，有心者不妨一試運氣。

Can Trump succeed?

Translated by AITrump's strong rise to power has drawn global attention. Everyone says this charismatic strongman president's behavior is unpredictable; however, it is precisely due to the eight years of Obama and how various crises in today's world have worsened that makes it unpredictable.In order for the world to be filled with chaos and disorder, the United States needs a leader capable of responding to the unpredictable. This illustrates how many people misunderstand Trump.Politics is determined by human behavior, which is influenced by emotions and different cultural mindsets, often leading to irrationality. Therefore, politics is not a science. Yet, as humans are part of society, historical changes and fluctuations have their own set of rules.Because human nature has many dark sides, power corrupts, and monarchs can be arrogant, like spoiled children, human behavior can often be predicted. The laws of social change, upon reflection, also show a pattern.Trump's "unpredictability" is not the real issue; the true question is why the West and humanity find themselves in an unprecedented predicament today.Trump is a leader who has faced the worst public scrutiny since the founding of the United States. During his last four years, American society, including mainstream media, never treated one of its own presidents fairly or objectively. The bias against Trump stems from his business dealings before eOf course, Trump’s economic policies also have significant hidden concerns. For example, he cannot compel the next generation of Americans to return to the industrious spirit of their grandparents in the 1950s and go back to factories. Whether the U.S. can revive its industry depends on American busHowever, can this move counterbalance the inflation effects caused by tariffs on Chinese imports? How do the two relate? Governing a country of 300 million people, Americans’ minimum wage and working hours are increasing, and Trump cannot cut back in that area. Thus, shadows loom over Trump’s economNonetheless, America’s advantage is that it is America. What other countries cannot achieve with Britain, America has the opportunity to do. The U.S. is the world's largest consumer nation and also has abundant energy resources. American culture and military dominance claim global supremacy, and theTrump and his team must recognize that their Eastern adversary has a 3,000-year culture and the strategic cunning of Sun Tzu, being ten times more astute and difficult than Russia’s Putin.Facing a mountain of domestic issues, four years is certainly not enough for Trump. A friend of mine in an international school in Hong Kong has a daughter who, not yet in her sixth year of secondary school, has already returned to tell her parents that she identifies as "Tran." The parents, perplexIf this is the situation in Hong Kong, it highlights the immense influence of the American left and demonstrates America’s strong impact. America’s greatest strength lies in its influence. Trump’s election terrified the German Chancellor, prompting her to call for early elections, and it’s believed Trump possesses a Moses-like power to lead his people across the Red Sea; more and more people believe that God will intervene at critical moments, just like a bullet that passes through without harm.

關稅之外的陰影：從2025美中貿易戰，回望美國對香港的歷史政策

2025年4月，美國總統特朗普再次點燃全球經貿緊張局勢，對中國商品課徵高達125%的懲罰性關稅，將中國排除於「全球對等關稅暫緩清單」之外。中國隨即宣布對美商品報復性加徵關稅，稅率升至125%，「中美關稅戰2.0」宣告全面爆發。在這樣的背景下，許多評論將焦點放在供應鏈斷裂、資本流動與市場信心上，但較少人注意到——這場貿易戰背後的博弈，仍沿襲自冷戰時期的「結構性對抗」。我們不妨回頭，從歷史的角度理解這場衝突的深層邏輯：為什麼美中對峙的陰影總在香港這個城市格外清晰？葉霖博士的《在中國的影子下：美國對香港的外交政策（1945–1972）》正提供了我們觀察這個問題的絕佳切口。該書以大量解密檔案與一手史料，細緻剖析美國在戰後對香港的態度變遷，亦讓我們看見——在每一次風暴來臨時，香港總被夾在帝國邊界的模糊地帶，成為歷史與政治張力的縮影。二戰結束後，美國總統羅斯福曾在開羅會議表達對中國收回香港的支持，視此為反殖民主義的一部分。這在當時中國國民政府的宣傳中被廣泛引用。然而，戰後的現實迅速改變。為了鞏固與英國的戰略同盟，美國國務院在1945年後放棄了支持中國收回香港的立場，轉而接受英國繼續對港的殖民管治。到了1949年中國共產黨建政，美國對中國政策全面轉向。美方對共產主義在亞洲擴張的恐懼，迅速凌駕反殖理念。香港此時被重新定義為冷戰前線——美國不僅不支持中國收回香港，還在私下與英國達成默契：保住香港，才保得住亞洲反共陣線的最後據點。書中引用多份解密檔案，證明國務院內部雖仍有部分人士主張支持民主化改革與去殖民政策，但在整體冷戰格局下，這些聲音無法推動實質政策調整。與此同時，華府更著手透過媒體、教育、文化等「軟實力」形式滲透香港，設下長期前哨與意識形態陣地。在1950至1960年代，香港的角色越來越多元——既是西方自由陣營的展示窗口，也是滲透中國大陸的情報基地；既是資本主義的示範區，也是「思想戰」的橋頭堡。葉霖特別強調，香港不單單是一個英國殖民地，更是美國與中國之間的「灰色地帶」。美國情報部門在港設立多個監聽與情報收集中心，香港亦成為美國對華情報分析的神經中樞。美國國務院新聞總署透過資助中文報刊、設立文化交流中心，推動自由主義思想滲透至華南地區。當時不少著名的自由派期刊，如《民主評論》、《自由中國》都曾短暫在香港發行，並且被中共列為重點封鎖對象。而這樣的「另類戰場」也直接牽動了中國共產黨的香港政策。書中指出，雖然中共在1949年後未有主動收回香港，但始終關注港內政治動向，並藉助左派社團與工會進行組織滲透。北京政府將香港定位為「暫不收回、可加以利用」的特殊地區，其對港政策長期處於務實與進取之間的拉鋸。1967年文化大革命波及香港，左派在工會號召下發動大規模示威，進而演變成暴力衝突。美英兩國均高度關注香港局勢可能失控，葉霖詳細分析了美國當時的外交反應。事實上，美國內部對是否介入表現出高度矛盾：一方面擔心香港動盪波及全球自由貿易體系，另一方面亦不願破壞與英國的盟友關係。在書中，美國駐香港總領事館的報告顯示，美國政府一度懷疑北京將藉此「奪回香港」，但也觀察到中共迅速下令「冷處理」，避免事件升級。這不僅反映出中共內部政策分歧，也讓美方進一步認識到——香港穩定，不僅對英國殖民政府有利，更是美中未來談判關係的關鍵籌碼。葉霖指出，六七暴動後，美國更加強化香港的「次要戰略價值」定位，不再寄望香港成為滲透中國的跳板，而是確保它作為東亞資本流動與文化交流的「緩衝地帶」繼續存在。1971年美國支持中國恢復聯合國席位，1972年尼克森訪華，中美關係迅速解凍。香港的角色也從「觀察中國」的基地，逐漸轉變為「被觀察」的對象。葉霖特別指出，尼克森過境香港的短暫停留象徵意義遠大於實質交流——香港成為東亞轉型的見證者，但不再是決策核心。美國的關注重心轉向北京，香港則逐漸被邊緣化。這也為之後1997年主權移交埋下伏筆。在整個1970年代，美國雖偶有關注香港的政治自由、人權問題，但多數仍以經濟穩定為優先，這種「去政治化」的香港政策，對香港後來的發展模式影響深遠。從今日回望，香港仍處在兩個大國角力的中心。中美關係雖已不同於冷戰時期的意識形態對抗，但技術、金融、供應鏈等層面構成的「新冷戰」格局，使香港的制度、角色與命運再次變得不穩定。葉霖的研究讓我們理解，香港從來不是中立之地，它始終處在兩個帝國「例外處理」的歷史夾縫之中。在這裡，政策經常不基於香港人的選擇，而是基於美中大國的戰略計算。當今的香港，被迫重新擔任戰略緩衝區的角色，卻失去了昔日的外交自主空間。從2025年的關稅戰爭到科技制裁、金融審查，香港在全球秩序中的處境再次受到關注。但除非我們認清其歷史結構性問題，否則這座城市仍將一再陷入「被選擇」的命運中。《在中國的影子下》是一部歷史著作，但它同時也是一面鏡子。它讓我們看到一段段決策過程如何塑造香港的制度框架，也讓我們意識到：香港之所以重要，並非因為它的體量或軍事價值，而在於它提供了一種可能——在大國博弈中仍保有空間的可能。今天的香港可能已難以再成為當年自由世界對中國的觀察哨，但我們仍應記得，歷史所教給我們的不只是事實，更是理解權力與命運的方式。在新一輪關稅戰與全球對抗下，香港再度回到十字路口，而這段歷史正是照亮未來的光。

全球化「已死」多次　最後總會返魂

Please refer to Traditional Chinese version.

川普和拜登的特赦比賽

Before leaving office, Biden pardoned his own son for decades-long actions, which caused public outcry. Trump and Biden have a tacit understanding and jointly staged a win-win "amnesty politics". Biden will set a precedent. As soon as Trump returns, he will announce that all the "rebellious rioters"

美國民主制度不好，難道回歸中國方式？

美國總統大選，特朗普回歸，支持賀錦麗的選民呼天搶地，連許多平時理性的美國知識分子也哀嚎：美國的民主出了大問題。 美國的議會民主制度沒有問題，是輸打贏要、大量長期被左翼意識形態洗了腦的人的心智才有問題。 民主普選並非最好的制度。前首相邱吉爾說過：但這是經過其他多種制度試驗之後，民主普選被證實是害處最小的制度。 邱吉爾不但是軍事家，也是政治家，也是歷史學家。民主普選當然有問題，古希臘的柏拉圖就曾經提出：一旦選民缺乏教育，知識淺薄，不懂得思考，政客鼓其如簧之舌，開空頭支票，哄騙民意，可以憑欺詐上台，為國家造成損失。 柏拉圖認為：一個理想的社會，不能有民主普選，只能由智者精英，亦即所謂Philosopher King 來統治。 而Philosopher King (簡稱PK)又如何選拔？柏拉圖沒有說。這個PK做了理想國的國王之後，其性格會不會變化？權力會令人腐化，再品格純正君子的哲人PK，在擁有權力之後也會傲慢自大，也會認為自己是天才，也會淪為真正的PK。 柏拉圖也沒有答案，只是口口聲聲說：選民的質素沒有保證，選民容易聽信謊言。這一點沒有錯。因此人類古往今來，從來未能實驗出一個完全理想的制度，在西方，在教育普及、教育質素有保證的大前提下，只能實現一個最合理的制度。發現選錯了領袖，四五年一度，即刻可以換人。而且三權分立，互相制衡，確保領袖不會濫用權力。 因此，華盛頓確立的美國議會民主制度沒有問題，出了問題的是美國教育的內容。近二十年來，暗藏的馬克思或共產主義者「精英」在美國中小學的課程加入了大量左派意識形態的毒素，鼓吹同性戀主流、鼓勵變性手術，經濟民生次要，美國的選民反而有常識，不必有哈佛學位，用選票將許多博士碩士的左翼政客趕了下台。 美國的議會民主有問題，那麼難道回歸到中國的君主制就萬事大吉？ 許多年一票選舉權也沒有的中國人，難免歡呼雀躍，幸災樂禍，基於其長期的民族自卑感與自大狂，有這樣的情緒反應也很易理解。 然而中國的君主制，必然也是極權嗎？「禮運大同篇」對於中國領袖的產生方式，只有四個字，叫做「選言語能」。選賢與能，與柏拉圖的精英管治相同。只是沒有詳細說明：是如何「選」法？當選的能人，任期有多長？權力會不會腐化？在這方面與柏拉圖一樣，也欠缺了細節。 中國的君主制度走向專政，當然由秦始皇開始。但在秦始皇之後，也不是沒有回歸過一點常理。例如唐宋兩代的皇帝，由唐太宗道宋太祖，由宋太祖到宋徽宗，沒有一個是秦始皇一類的暴君，大多數有聽取意見的胸襟。譬如唐代，皇帝並非一人決斷，而是由一個類似中國國務院一樣的「中書省」來商議。中樞省有大學士多名，為首的那個叫做「中書令」，相當於宰相。重大政策由中書省合庭商議產生，中書令蓋章，再交付另一個叫做「門下」的機構 唐宋兩代近七百年，沿用這套管治方式，沒有獨裁，也沒有帝王的暴政，與柏拉圖的理想國非常相似，而且比理想國好： PK不是一個人，而是一大群人， PK階級之內有商有量，也有爭論， PK之上，才是皇帝。而對於皇帝的要求，也有「內聖外王」的儒家道德鞭策。 其中出現過宰相王安石變法事件，但王安石沒有軍事政變奪權。因此，中國人從前施行過精英統治，精英由科舉產生，來自民間。這套制度其實不錯，今日都成為歷史。 英國考公務員，叫做Mandarin，也是來自唐宋科舉的靈感。對美國的民主制度不滿意，可以參考中國制度，不過不是秦始皇和毛澤東這一頭一尾的暴政，而是取其中段。 美國的漢學家對中國文化一知半解，否則面對今日的亂局，是他們應該在美國大聲疾呼的時候。但他們沒有，將輿論交給了TikTok的民粹。

Reflecting on Hong Kong from the Perspective of American Democratic Elections

Translated by AI:The U.S. presidential election features a unique "Electoral College" system, which has attracted significant global attention and scrutiny.The "Electoral College" is well-known; it does not simply involve a straightforward majority vote from the American electorate. In this regard, Taiwan's presidential elections are arguably more democratic than those in the United States.Furthermore, the presidential candidates of the two major U.S. parties are not chosen through "citizen nominations." Instead, they are determined by internal assessments of public opinion conducted by various interest groups within the parties.The U.S. Congress is divided into two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate. Although elections are held every two years, the two chambers function like the upper and lower levels of a bus. After a bill passes the House, it must be submitted to the Senate, and both chambers must apprIn contrast, the British Parliament consists of an upper house and a lower house, with some members of the upper house being hereditary peers and a significant portion appointed by the Prime Minister. For example, after leaving his political career, Chris Patten was appointed as a member of the HousFrom these examples, it’s clear that the electoral systems in the UK and the U.S. do not constitute "universal suffrage." Both countries have had their electoral methods in place for at least 200 years, but the question remains: are they functioning well? Can they guarantee the election of perfect lIn the U.S., ballots can be mailed in advance or cast electronically. However, the media does not report on where these mailed ballots are stored or if they have been moved during that time, and there is no paparazzi following them around twenty-four hours a day. In contrast, in most democratic counThe model of "universal suffrage" proposed in Hong Kong aligns with the former pro-democracy camp's consistent stance: that the chief executive candidates must be nominated by citizens, and all Legislative Council seats should be directly elected. Some have questioned: if a candidate like "Long HairConsider this: you are all human, born equal. Do you think this situation is equal?If it is not equal, then should this structural inequality in Hong Kong be changed? If you elect me as chief executive, I promise that large corporations with profits exceeding 500 million will have to pay 70% in corporate taxes. The taxes collected will be redistributed to impoverished citizens livIf "universal suffrage" were implemented, I believe there would be more than a 50% chance that Mr. Leung Kwok-hung would become the chief executive of today's Hong Kong.This hypothesis, of course, does not disrespect Mr. Leung. He has every right to his political views and expressions, and Benny Tai can propose the possibility of universal suffrage within academic circles. However, Mr. Leung is a follower of Trotsky, a figure from the extreme left of the former SovBefore 2019, Hong Kong enjoyed relative freedom of speech but never engaged in mature discussions about whether the electoral systems of the UK and the U.S. qualify as universal suffrage. Because once a rational and critical analysis is presented, it would be labeled by the pro-democracy side as havAs a result, those holding such views would refrain from speaking out, much like today in the U.S., where many reportedly believe that Trump is not as bad as Kamala Harris but dare not express this publicly for fear of social repercussions and potentially losing their jobs.This reflects a structural problem in society. In any country, regardless of how democratic and free it is, democracy and freedom need to be practiced by free individuals. Just as in a communist utopia where wealth and food are to be distributed equally, the distribution process is not handled by diOn what basis can some individuals control the distribution of wealth and food? Where do these people derive their power? Is there any selfishness in the distribution process? Marx did not address any of this in his discourse.This highlights that the quality of "humans" does not guarantee perfection, whether in the leaders elected or the voters casting ballots.Today's electoral democracy in the U.S. is not merely a systemic issue but rather a problem with the quality and judgment of the broader populace. Human issues are shaped by education across generations: moral values, ways of thinking, and judgments of good and evil are all molded from kindergarten Three days before the U.S. election, a law passed by the German parliament came into effect: German citizens can now freely change their official records regarding name and gender, once a year, without needing medical proof or a judicial ruling. Authorities have already received at least 1,200 appliAccording to this law, a person's gender in Germany is no longer determined by physiological characteristics but by individual will. Adult Germans can choose from four genders: male, female, non-binary, and gender-neutral. Additionally, individuals can freely change their names to better reflect theLike the U.S., Germany is a parliamentary democracy. Of course, if a democratic decision is wrong, it can be corrected in the next election cycle as long as the president or prime minister can be replaced. However, given today’s trends, this is not guaranteed: when The Washington Post announced this

U.S. Election Scenarios and Post-Election Policy Risks

The U.S. election remains very close though a win for former President Donald Trump appears slightly more likely than one for Vice President Kamala Harris. The race for control of the House is also close, though here a Democrat majority looks marginally more likely. For the Senate, a Republican majo

BRICS Summit 2024: Not a Game Changer

The BRICS Summit, despite expectations, and the Kazan deceleration, which was a joint statement signed after the summit, is not a game-changer but offered little of substance. No concrete steps were taken on accepting new members in Kazan while 13 countries including Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Turkishe’s president Erdogan joined the summit but no consensus reached for Turkiye to become a member in the near future. I

拜登失言雖成笑柄　外交功過不容輕視

拜登的任期將過，雖然因健康無法爭取連任，但至少也沒被彈劾。這四年來拜登經常語出驚人，曾經在國情咨文將「烏克蘭」說成「伊朗」，又在華沙的演講裡即興評論普京，「在上帝的份上，這個人不能繼續掌權」、更說過普京「顯然正在伊拉克戰爭中敗陣」（烏克蘭）⋯⋯拜登的失言不論是因腦退化還是口誤，在媒體的渲染下已成笑柄，但以四年任期來說其外交政續算是合理有餘。 即使是民主黨的支持者也明白，不論拜登如何推翻前任特朗普的決定，後者回歸的機會亦不低。拜登在上任首天即讓美國重返世界衛生組織和《巴黎協定》，就是要釋出支持多邊合作的重要，一改前任單邊主義的作風。 就美國的亞洲戰略目標而言，每步外交都是為了圍堵中國而走，雖然與 廿年來，華盛頓一直強調亞洲在本世紀的中心地位，並希望將美國的外 雖然美國多年來在地投入巨額資金，建立國家警察、軍隊，解放女權、 但最失敗的外交政策就是現時的以巴戰爭。即使美國已全力促成停火， 媒體的渲染下，拜登像個八旬老翁屢在重要場合失儀，形象觀感嚴重受

Moldova's Referendum to Join the EU Passes: Will it Become the Next Ukraine?

Every major power considers itself to have a sphere of influence, allowing only its own interference in the internal affairs of other nations and rejecting the involvement of others. Russia views its sphere of influence as encompassing the former Soviet Union territories; otherwise, Putin wouldn’t h

The Dark Secrets Buried by the UK and the US in the Indian Ocean

There are always some dark corners of the world that remain unknown, used by governments for secret operations. Over the past few months, foreign journalists have been applying to visit the uninhabited island of Diego Garcia, the main island of the British Indian Ocean Territory of the Chagos Archip

普京永續俄烏戰爭的本錢

健康的經濟循環就像脊髓，支撐國家繼續運轉。歷史上不少國家的經濟崩潰後，政治秩序也隨之解體，如一戰後的威瑪共和國，又或穆加貝時期的津巴布韋。雖然戰時經濟運轉對政治的影響需要時間才浮現，但俄烏戰爭已逾兩年半，普京還在，烏克蘭也尚未倒下，變成曠日持久的消耗戰。 如果西方還寄望以經濟壓力迫使俄羅斯嗚金收軍，看到新一份財政預算案大概會更感悲觀。 日前克里姆林宮已批准2025年至2027年的財政預算案，來年的軍事開支將驚人地增加25%，達到1,400億美元，創下後蘇聯時期的新紀錄，也意味着即使俄烏戰爭即將完結，未來三年的軍備開支亦會保持在高水平。俄羅斯作為世界最大的油元國之一，龐大的天降橫財讓其能夠抵住

BRICS, BRI, and U.S. Tensions for China

BRICS can provide a political buffer but not economic, as BRICS are still searching for practical areas for cooperation.  However, Donald Trump universal tariffs threats could focus BRICS on more intra EM trade. BRI has already helped to redirect China exports to EM countries, despite the slowdown i

Palestinians’ Right to Return Home

As one of the largest refugee nations in the world, the Palestinians have had their homes continuously annexed for half a century and have been forced to live a life of displacement in refugee camps. It is estimated that there are 9.17 million Palestinians displaced in the world, of which about 8.36

香港的問題，要從家說起：從《白手興家：香港家族與社會 1841–1941》看當代社會權力的重組與幻滅

今天的香港，還可能出現另一個「白手興家」的故事嗎？在資產階級已固化、樓市與政權深度交纏的今天，這個問題似乎幼稚。然而翻開《白手興家：香港家族與社會 1841–1941》，我們看到的卻不是虛幻的傳奇，而是一部制度未成形時的社會自組圖譜：在英殖統治極少涉足的早期百年裡，是誰提供了教育、醫療與基本社會秩序？這些並不是殖民政府的職責重點——根據鄭宏泰與高皓的研究，在1841到1941年間，港英政府對華人社群的管理多數停留於司法與稅收層面，社會服務、教育與醫療等大量需求，實質上仰賴民間家族集資與興辦 。家族，不只是經濟單位，更是信任的容器？當我們重讀《白手興家》時會發現，香港的早期發展並非純粹資本推動的結果，而是「家族—社群—市場」三角關係的產物。從羅文錦在報業與醫療上的投資，到李樹培家族在教育與公共服務上的深耕，再到李石朋以押店、地產拓展成為資本巨頭的歷程，每個「白手興家」的故事都離不開一個核心：信任如何構建。羅文錦並非殖民統治者眼中的理想合作對象，他與政府的關係介乎協商與制衡之間，但他能獲得社會廣泛支持，正因其主持的《工商日報》與養和醫院，成為市民可依賴的資訊與醫療平台。他既不全屬商界，也不純粹是知識階層，而是以家族網絡為基礎，在制度邊緣創造公共價值。這種信任機制，在今日香港正日漸凋零。無論是財團辦報、跨代傳承基金，還是政治與商界人物的家族關係，公眾多以「裙帶」、「壟斷」、「特權」觀之。當家族不再是社會信任的建構者，反而成為權力排除的象徵，意味著整體社會對家族資本的觀感已從仰望轉為質疑。新時代的家族失語：從「社群連結」到「體制嵌入」在《白手興家》的家族故事中，有一項共通特點：這些家族大多在制度未完善之前起家，在無法依靠政府的時代自建網絡，在殖民治理容忍之下尋找空隙。但到了今天的香港，我們觀察到一個明顯轉變：家族不再是制度之外的力量，而是徹底嵌入制度中的一部分。當家族成為政協、人大代表，或進入選舉委員會成為建制政治參與者的一環，他們的社會角色便由「秩序創造者」變為「權力穩定器」。這樣的身份轉換，使得不少曾有改革抱負的家族失去獨立性，甚至喪失「從社會來，到社會中去」的原始衝動。曾經李光耀在新加坡強調政府與家族企業的清晰劃界，今日香港卻朝著相反方向前行：地產財團幾乎影響所有政策層面，包括土地供應、房屋分配、醫療資源與教育撥款。這種「政經共同體」的形成，使家族不再需要透過服務社群來獲得地位，而僅需透過對權力的忠誠來確保存續。香港的「家族政治」與國際比較：新加坡、台灣與我們的距離回望亞洲其他地區，我們可見不同的「家族與社會」模式。新加坡的家族企業在政策框架下受限於反貪機構監管，不能過度滲透公部門；台灣的企業家族則往往需透過公共論述與社會參與重塑企業形象，如張榮發基金會、台塑企業永續部門，皆努力將商業活動與社會責任接軌。但香港呢？《白手興家》展示的是一個從零開始的時代——那時候沒有政策補貼、沒有特權通道、沒有「合作框架」，一切靠自己搭建信任網絡、累積口碑與承擔社群責任。這樣的歷史反而成為今天制度設計者該回望的座標。我們是否能讓新一代的家族或企業，重新透過實質社會貢獻來獲得社會認可，而非單靠政治接軌？如果不能，那麼我們將失去的，不只是另一次「白手興家」的機會，而是香港最核心的社會再生能力。家族記憶的政治與文化隱退：從祠堂、家書到公共敘事的缺席另一層被忽略的轉變，是家族記憶如何逐漸退出香港的公共敘事。過去的宗祠文化、家族檔案、族譜撰修，是一種歷史與身份連結的形式，也是一種代際責任的實踐。但今天，家族記憶往往被視為私人財富的象徵，而非文化延續的基礎。《白手興家》中不少篇章提及家族如何透過文書記錄、族產分配、集體決議維持家道與社會影響力，例如李石朋家族的押店簿冊、周壽臣的資產信託、何東的教育捐贈備忘錄，皆為一種文化上的「制度」。這些看似瑣碎的操作，其實構成了一種在法律與信任之間的民間治理技術。當這種文化被消解，家族被簡化為「權貴」或「資產」代名詞，我們也失去了一種用歷史治理當下的能力。今天的香港，迫切需要重建「記憶的制度」——無論是社區史、企業史、家族史，皆應重新獲得公共敘事的位置。結語：我們要的是傳奇，還是現實可複製的社會動能？《白手興家》之所以仍值得細讀，不是因為它讓人懷舊或感動，而是因為它提供了一套被遺忘的治理原則：當社會面臨困難，真正有效的不是命令或資源，而是信任與責任的再建。今天的香港正值分岔點。制度仍在，但信任已損；財富仍有，但社會連結斷裂；公務猶存，但公共性不再。我們還有機會從家族、社群、企業與地方中找回那種從零開始、為群體服務、以信為本的社會動能嗎？如果答案是肯定的，那麼「白手興家」便不只是歷史，更是未來的密碼。

Britain: Democracy Without Social Mobility

Britain, here referring to the United Kingdom, is widely regarded as a cornerstone of democracy. Beneath this reputation, however, lies a troubling reality: social mobility—the chance to rise above one’s origins—remains elusive for many. Reports and personal stories suggest an irony: Britain’s celeb

換一雙眼睛看香港——從芭芭拉・華德的「意識模型」理解我們身處的斷裂時代

你可曾試過，站在一個自小長大的地方，卻忽然覺得它變得陌生？並非因街道翻新或市容改變，而是你忽然察覺：過去熟悉的一切，或許從未被真正理解過。那種感覺，彷彿失語，又像是被抽走了解釋世界的詞彙。半個世紀前，英國人類學家芭芭拉・華德（Barbara E. Ward）曾在香港長期生活與研究，留下了一系列有關社會結構、文化行為與宗教意識的田野觀察。她在2010年遺作結集成書，名為《Through Other Eyes: Essays in Understanding "Conscious Models" — Mostly in Hong Kong》，不僅是對殖民地社會的紀錄，更是一種對「如何觀看他人看世界的方式」的深刻反思。當下的香港，正處於一個難以用單一政治語言概括的斷裂時代：自由空間收窄，社群撕裂加劇，國族敘事全面主導，而個體解釋自身的方式被壓縮。在此時回望華德筆下的香港，我們或許應學習她的方法——暫時放下我們習慣的解釋框架，以「他者之眼」重新觀看。

教宗死後的世界真空

教宗方濟各逝世，天主教徒例行哀悼，也有教徒對於這位教宗生前的言行，尤其對中國的建交問題，極為不滿。教宗逝世前，美國副總統范斯曾到訪，二十年來從來沒有一位美國副總統單獨訪問梵蒂岡，范斯去了，與教宗閉門會談，顯示以范斯為首的美國傳統主義者，以及美國的天主教徒，對教宗近年的軟弱和鄉愿表達不滿。世界越紛亂，人心越迷茫，亦即梵蒂岡的權威越低落。尤其社交媒體與TiK ToK攻佔人類的下一代，梵蒂岡和聖公會必須有一個態度。青少年越玩手提電話，越會遠離教堂。理由很簡單：兩小時的彌撒，叫青少年不低頭看手提電話，只聽神父講道和唱聖詩，越來越不可能。許多英國寄宿學校已經取消了一星期一次教堂佈道課，因為學生心不在焉。手提電話在口袋裏，只要每十分鐘一陣震響，聽聖詩和神父講道就會分心。蘋果的手提電話與其創辦人喬布斯，就是撒旦派來人間的代理人之一。說是「之一」，因為代理人當然不只喬布斯一個。但科技發展到極端，會令人心拋棄信仰，此一趨勢，三百年來也很明顯。

紅藥丸雜誌的來龍去脈(3)

紅藥丸雜誌的來龍去脈(2)

紅藥丸雜誌的來龍去脈(1)

的士佬憑什麼勇武？

的士佬無禮拒載唔過海濫收車資並非罕見，但論勇武實是本港第一字頭，好比2005年韓國農民。政府規管Uber一拖再拖，高德打車又悄悄進入本港市場，又多隻香爐多隻鬼，惹起多個的士團體要「背城一戰」威脅罷駛，可是最後淪為笑柄，須對造成「不良觀感」向市民致歉。的士佬勇武抗爭早有前科，僵化的牌照制度讓行業難以適應時代進步帶來的競爭。然而撇除牌照制度，即使白牌車他日合法化，也不會像外國一樣嚴重影響的士司機生計，那又何以懼之？ 上世紀80年代起，的士佬已屢次發動抗爭，如1984年因政府增加首次登記稅和牌費，數千架的士參與罷駛，及後示威更變騷亂（現今標準叫「暴動」），打砸搶燒，當局須動用防暴警察施射催淚彈；2 Uber在2014年攻港後，火速攻佔市場，不斷侵蝕的士業界份額，使後者服務每況愈下，形成惡性循環，高德打車只是讓業界忍無可忍的最後一根稻草。回看的士業界近十年的發展，雖然這老態龍鍾的 一是政府自1994年增加牌照數目後，已有30年沒有增發，一直維持在18,163輛，但期間人口卻由約616萬增至750萬。不過政府只是聲稱一直有考慮是否需要增發，惟「經考慮市場需求及相 其次是香港地養車成本甚高，加上土地面積細小，公交網絡發達，也不利（大量）私家車司機加入市場競爭。香港作為發達地區，人均汽車擁有量在全球排名中下游，不但遠低於日本、南韓，也低於內地，原 的士面對Uber的競爭雖然是事實，但絕非影響存亡的創造性破壞，行業城牆尚算穩固，只是多年養來尊處優的生活，使其難以接受一切外來衝擊。

From Glory to Gloom: Hong Kong Fails the 'ISO 9000' Standard (Edward Chin)

Hong Kong has been sinking since that fateful day on June 30th, 2020, at 11:00 pm when the National Security Law (NSL) came into effect. The city’s glory is gone. The defenders of our core values have been imprisoned or driven into exile. For years, Hongkongers tried peaceful protests, asking Beijin To me, Hong Kong was always more than just a financial hub. Hong Kong was a city of possibilities—where people built their futures, whether through business, craftsmanship, or trade. It was a place that allowed for survival and success. But that Hong Kong no longer exists. Beijing’s chokehold has st My closest friends in the finance and business sectors remain deeply committed to the ideals of Hong Kong’s freedoms. Yet even among the pro-establishment business community, there is growing concern. I hear it in their voices when we talk—people who once defended the government’s actions now expres As for Jimmy Lai, his fate under the totalitarian regime is still not known. The trial of Jimmy Lai, founder of the pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily, marks a tragic turning point in Hong Kong's recent history. The prolonged delay in Lai's trial for alleged violations of the National Security Law  Last month, Jimmy Lai’s international legal team, along with his son, Sebastien Lai, submitted an urgent appeal to Dr. Alice Edwards, the UN Special Rapporteur on Torture. The appeal highlights a range of serious concerns regarding Mr. Lai’s treatment in detention, including:     Most Hongkongers never wanted independence—they simply wanted the freedoms that were promised to them under the “one country two systems” framework. That said, the 'one country, two systems' model fails the ISO 9000 standard completely. What’s terrifying is the growing sense that Hong Kong’s distinc As I watch from afar, I see the exodus continuing. Capital is flowing out of Hong Kong, and so are the people. This time, it’s not just the pro-democracy activists leaving—many from the pro-establishment camp are also packing their bags. They see the writing on the wall. The government’s heavy-hande I remember a recent conversation with a pro-establishment business contact. We were on FaceTime, and he looked at me with a mixture of fear and desperation. “Do you think John Lee and the sanctioned officials are still in their right state of mind to govern Hong Kong?” he asked. His question highlig As for Jimmy Lai, a prominent figure representing Hong Kong’s fight for freedom and democracy, should be granted amnesty by the Hong Kong government. His imprisonment not only represents a grave injustice but also symbolizes the erosion of the liberties that once defined the city. Granting him amnesBy offering amnesty to Jimmy Lai, John Lee can initiate a similar process of healing and renewal. This act would signal that Hong Kong is willing to reconcile its past, address injustices, and return to the rule of law and the freedoms that once made it a global beacon. It is not just a matter of on O God, eternal Father, look down upon your children whom you have created with dignity and given freedom. We pray for the freedom of the people who suffer in Hong Kong and throughout the mainland, especially believers who suffer persecution for your name’s sake. We pray that you would rebuke the for

子女在英國讀書，避免中毒

西方左派近年入侵西方人的正常生活，用但係愛平等包裝極左的馬克斯主義，在教育界、荷里活、傳媒經營多年，佔據主流之後，開始文化獨裁，打擊異見人士，令英美沉默的大多數不敢開口，怕一開口就被標籤為極右人渣法西斯。 每一個人的性別、種族與生俱來。男人就是男人，女人就是女人，在香港和華人社會，千百年來並無爭議。天下本無事、庸人自擾之，全民起動拼命要在太監之中找一個生物上的女人，又或者在尼姑庵裏找一個男人，純屬浪費時間。中國人不做這樣的蠢事。 但近年英語世界陷入此類集體愚蠢。 「身份政治」近年入侵音樂界。兩百年的古典音樂作家：巴哈、海頓、莫札特、貝多芬，以及柏林交響樂團，清一色是金髮白種的男人天下。此一歷史與文化的事實，現在備受英語世界的 西方現代音樂本來被非洲的敲擊樂滲透，一味的嘈吵，加上空氣裏一股大麻味道。非洲黑人騎劫西方樂壇，已經討厭，最新起爭論，包括翻出十九世紀一個混血的黑人小提琴家布里治陶與 另外，莫扎特有一個姐姐，不為人知，據說才華被時代埋沒，甚至有猜測她的一些作品被歸為弟弟名下。 此類「翻案」，顯示出西方左派的意識形態日趨極端，無處不在煽動兩性和不同種族、階級身份之間的分化敵意。 現代流行音樂的主流下，古典音樂已經邊緣化，無法擺脫被批判的噩運。 十八世紀的女性，其政治和經濟權利都大受局限，但這不是莫札特父親的錯，更不是莫札特的錯。在莫札特的年代，許多貴族婦女都是優秀的鋼琴家，她們只活躍於上流社交圈，並不公開 然而，這些歷史細節，左派的政治故意忽略，將整個西方古典音樂是抹黑為男性霸權、白人種族優越主義者「玩晒」。美國民主黨由奧巴馬到今日的賀錦麗，就是代表這股文化大革命的惡 西方的女權運動，是一場浩大的歷史潮流結果：即工業化令人類逐漸得以擺脫舊有的土地、農業和政治專制。女性主義率先在西方興起，是因爲脫胎自基督教信念，目標是人權平等。 即使十八世紀的歐洲宮廷，貴族婦女的地位和權益，比低下階層的手工作坊或耕田的工農男人高級，不是性別歧視問題，而是社會經濟結構的必然結果。 在莫札特最著名的一齣歌劇之中，伯爵夫人與侍女交換身份而易服，作曲家為這兩位女主角所寫的唱段，刻意模糊其階級的分野，因爲當時最重要的政治議題，不是兩性之爭，而是貴族與 自從法國大革命之後，歐洲舊有的王權崩塌，貴族遭清洗，釋放了巨大的權力空間，十九世紀的中產女性，比大革命之前得享更多自由，莫札特的姐姐一旦嫁人，沒有再施展音樂才華的機 十九世紀末，女權運動順勢形成，因為此時女性受教育程度大大提升，傳教事業興旺，許多女性傳教士前往異域工作，興學行醫，眼界大開，又適逢第一次世界大戰爆發，歐洲的勞工市場 因爲工業化帶來商業繁榮的現代社會，傳統男性的體力，已經不再佔有絕對優勢，而商業社會及民主政治特別著重的溝通、傳播、調停等技能，女性都勝任有餘。 時至今日，西方左派政治表面以推進「社會進步」爲名，其實社會分裂為代價，然而最大的時代挑戰，是人工智能對人文的挑戰，包括女權運動在内的身份政治，卻以男性為政治敵對目標 當今世界，只有先進的富裕社會才有女權議題，卻生育率普遍低下；與之相反，生育率居高不下的地方。如非洲和中東等，根本沒有女權議題的空間。左派的女性主義由爭取人權，演變爲 香港家長將子女送去英國讀中學，要警惕英國中學課程之中已經塞入了大量甚有政治偏見的這類毒素，要留意子女在英國讀書的過程，為了要融入「主流」，被班級其他同學誤導，為了要 在這方面，家長要謹慎應對，從小正確教育子女：你長大了，是男人；或者你長大了，是簡單的女人。或者，我們都是華人；記住：我們一家都是正常人。

Who’s the King of Invasions?

Who has led the world in invasions over the past three centuries (1725–2025)? At first glance, the answer might seem straightforward, as all the information is publicly available. However, defining invasions is not so simple, as invaders rarely describe their actions as such. Instead, they often fra

一百年前的「外國勢力」，與今天的「外國干預」有何分別？

一百年前的「外國勢力」，與今天的「外國干預」有何分別？當中國政府高聲指責西方干預、香港媒體提及「境外敵對勢力」幾成日常，你有否想過，這樣的政治語言其實早在十九世紀的中國已現雛形？羅伯特・尼爾德（Robert Nield）的《China’s Foreign Places: The Foreign Presence in China in the Treaty Port Era, 1840–1943》，讓我們重新認識那段被屢次選擇性遺忘的歷史——從1840年第一次鴉片戰爭起，到1943年抗戰中止不平等條約為止，百餘個「條約口岸」構成了一張深深植入中國土地的帝國網絡。這些據點，不僅是帝國主義的軍事與經濟前線，更是文化碰撞、制度實驗與現代化進程的奇異容器。香港，作為其中一個最持久、最成功的據點，其歷史命運尤其值得重新審視。今日我們見證香港「被中國化」的急速進程，或許可從這段歷史中，尋找出一些令人不安的回聲。條約口岸的誕生：歷史如何開啟「他者治理」的中國模式？「條約口岸」的建立，是西方列強以武力撬開中國疆域的直接結果。自1842年《南京條約》將廣州、福州、廈門、寧波、上海五口開放通商起，英法美俄等國迅速擴張勢力，將數十個城市納入殖民勢力範圍。尼爾德詳細梳理了這些據點的誕生與演變，指出條約港的設置不只是為貿易服務，更創造了一套具殖民色彩的「他者治理」機制——治權由外人掌握、法治與稅制與內地斷裂、文化價值輸入當地生活。這樣的治理模式，不單止在空間上製造割裂，也在觀念上建構出一個「非我族類」的現代中國圖景。中國的主權，在這些據點內被有系統地抽離——而這種治理經驗，也成為近代中國國族主義敘事中的恥辱起點。

曖昧的中心，流動的邊緣──重讀《香港大視野》與我們的歷史現場

由舊香港到新香港，無數事實告訴我們，我們所熟知的香港，正在被各種勢力、話語權重寫過去、現在和未來。但誰來重寫？如何重寫？在「歷史」本身也淪為政治工具的時代，我們還能相信哪種視角去看這座城市？正是在這樣的時刻，重讀日本歷史學者濱下武志的《香港大視野》，反而提供了異常清澈的觀看方式——一種不屬於殖民者、也不屬於民族國家的視野。他不從中國的權力中心出發，也不被西方的秩序框架所綁，而是從海上網絡、僑民經濟、匯款系統與中介角色，構建出一個穿越國界、以流動為常態的「亞洲網絡中心」——香港。這不是對過去的浪漫懷舊，而是對當代危機的一種歷史解釋力。一、從「中心」看邊陲，或從邊陲理解亞洲？在今天的香港，「歷史」不再是一門遠觀的學科，而是一場正在爭奪的實時政治。無論是中學課綱的改寫、博物館展覽的重組、或是新聞報導中的表述鬥爭，香港的過去，早已被捲入今日的權力博弈之中。在這樣的時代重構下，重新閱讀日本歷史學家濱下武志於1997年出版的《香港大視野》，不只是對過去的一次回顧，更可能為我們提供一種超越當代地緣政治框架的歷史眼光。濱下所提出的「亞洲網絡中心」觀點，拒絕將香港視為孤立的殖民地或附屬地，而是置於由華人移民、貿易金融、海洋活動構成的網絡交匯點。這種視角，不僅打破了中國史與世界史之間的藩籬，也讓我們看見一個「從南方看中國」、「從移動中理解權力」的全新歷史框架。而這種網絡式理解，或許正是當下香港在「一國多制」名存實亡、政治與經濟深陷困局時，最迫切需要回應與反思的歷史資源。

幽默感是高壓社會的調味品

有說中國人與幽默感扯不上關係，至少「幽默」的概念得靠林語堂先生翻譯過來，才開始在華文世界出現和討論。當然幽默感欠奉也離不開民族性和文化，港人深受中國傳統文化影響，既認為幽默難登大場，是輕浮、膚淺和兒戲的表現，但也喜愛幽默帶來的開懷大笑。 幽默是種生活的調味料，人人可以口味各異，諷刺、影射、模仿和語帶雙關⋯⋯但就是不可或缺，尤其面對前路堪憂的社會，開懷大笑既能讓大腦釋放安多酚，又能暫時擱淺現實的無奈感。 林語堂說過，「沒有幽默滋潤的國民，其文化必日趨虛偽，生活必日趨欺詐，思想必日趨迂腐，文學必日趨乾枯，而人的心靈必日趨頑固。」不過個人之力弱，在高壓的封閉社會裡，大多只能委曲求全，政治笑話面對暴力 在史大林時期，蘇聯民眾雖接受了政權的全面宰制，被恐懼支配生活，但仍能以玩笑接受無奈的現實。蘇聯時期的笑話層出不窮，既有真實也有杜蓬，但大多都是寫實描繪生活，例如「一個工人早到工廠五分鐘，被控間諜 但苦中作樂不是蘇聯民眾的專利，猶太人面對納粹的苦難時，也留下過以笑抗衡的紀錄。如「蓋世太保正準備槍斃幾個猶太人時，走來一名軍官。「他對其中一人說，『你看起來有點像雅利安人，所以我給你一個機會，我 先賢說言論和思想自由是天賦權利，但此是理想而非現實。人們受制於政治和社會的高壓環境，只能以冷嘲熱諷的方式說出意見和想法。當正經談事的權利不再，調侃就成為弱者唯一的武器。奧威爾認為「每個笑話都是微 當然，玩笑不是蘇聯和納粹倒台的原因，但幽默的笑話卻令人在現實保持清醒，在順從與反抗之間避免麻木和犧牲的陷阱。這倒是一種亂世的生存策略。 Cover Photo: Gnomon Wise - Research Institute

烏克蘭定義了悲劇

魯迅說過，「悲劇將人生有價值的東西毀滅給人看」。若用歷史觀點解釋，歷時三年多的俄烏戰爭雖然是蘇聯解體的延後故事，但並不符合魯迅對悲劇的定義，畢竟那時共產主義的價值早已逝去，毀滅的只有苟且的社會秩序。 對普京來說，20世紀最嚴重的地緣政治災難，一場俄羅斯人真正的悲劇是蘇聯解體；但是來到21世紀，那場悲劇卻是烏克蘭經過幾世紀的流血衝突、被外國統治和分裂後，繼續成為東西歐不同價值觀的磨心。 俄烏兩國的共同文化遺產可追溯至一千多年前，當時斯拉夫族群定都基輔為中心。公元988年，弗拉基米爾一世皈依東正教，並在克里米亞半島的克森尼索接受洗禮。所以普京說俄羅斯人和烏克蘭人是同一民族，一個整體，就是建基這個時 可是，兩國在同一時光，亦會出現兩種截然不同的歷史意識。基輔羅斯公國成立後，烏克蘭就不斷在被佔領和光復之間來回折返，先有13世紀蒙古人的征服，然後是16世紀波蘭——立陶宛聯邦從西面入侵，17世紀帝俄先取得聶伯河東部 沒有史太林策劃的飢荒，也許烏克蘭的民族主義不會如此熾熱。1917年共產革命後，烏克蘭要到1922年才完全併入蘇聯統治。1930年代初，蘇聯強迫農民加入集體農場，導致農作物欠收，史太林索性掏空烏克蘭的儲糧，調回母國 俄烏戰爭不是一場對等戰爭，前者為阻止烏克蘭加入北約，威脅到自家後庭，所以先發制人，權謀是戰爭的本質；但後者對着強權不屈不朽，捍衛自主和獨立的價值，那怕成為一場悲劇，也要將拒有價值的東西毀滅給人看，這才是悲劇的價值 Photo: The Holodomor Research and Education Consortium (HREC)

孤立主義才是美國傳統

美國總統大選即將舉行，政治菁英、知識份子皆懼怕特朗普捲土重來，再有四年時間破壞既有的國際和政治秩序。政治最忌不確定性，使至特朗普的善變和極端作風來得嚇人，但在口沒遮攔的詞令背後，其賣座之處是植根在傳統的孤立主義。 從1789年到1941年美國正式參與二戰，美國外交上一直奉行孤立戰略，如前總統華盛頓在1796年告別演說直白地說，美國要可能與外國「減少政治聯繫」，「避免與其他國家建立永久聯盟」。特朗普雖然沒有華盛頓的謹慎和遠見，但其理念也是植根於19世紀末的傳統思維。 美國早年的孤立主義是隱而不宣的外交理念，立國國父皆相信美國在地緣格局安全，東西兩旁有巨大的海洋保護，南北兩面又有友好或可操控的鄰國 舊時孤立主義總能契合不同立場和群體的要求。對現實主義者來說，美國有地理保護可以減少理會大西洋和太平洋對岸的事務；對理想主義者來說即 可以說，到了20世紀中葉美國才扭轉其傳統，特朗普乘勢出現只是傳統的反撲。1940年美國仍盡努力遠離二戰的泥潭，但翌年日本空襲珍珠港 二戰前，美國有長達150多年不願締結軍事聯盟、也不願被集體安全承諾束縛的傳統，就如特朗普一樣喜歡單邊主義的特性。他會質疑讓烏克蘭加

以色列的戰爭即和平

In October 2023, thousands of Hamas militants successfully broke through the border defenses, destroyed several Israeli villages, and captured a large number of hostages. Subsequently, Prime Minister Netanyahu not only described Hamas as a "neo-Nazi", but also threatened to achieve "total victory",

沒有一種苦難是徒然的 — 黎智英、戴耀廷與的信仰堅持

In an age where authoritarianism suppresses dissent and truth-tellers are thrown into prison, the witness of Jimmy Lai and Benny Tai stands as a beacon of hope—grounded in the unshakable conviction that, in Christ, no suffering is purposeless.These two men—Jimmy Lai, a devout Catholic and founder of Apple Daily, and Benny Tai, a Protestant legal scholar, co-founder of the 2014 Umbrella Movement, and my senior classmate from high school—have chosen the narrow path. They are paying the price for peacefully defending truth, justice, and freJimmy Lai’s Catholic convictions have only deepened behind bars. He draws strength from Scripture, daily prayer, and—when available—the Eucharist. One figure who has long served as his spiritual guide is Cardinal Joseph Zen, the emeritus bishop of Hong Kong. A fearless advocate for religious freedomLai has called his time in prison “God’s grace.” This is not resignation—it is clarity. He lives out the Catholic teaching on redemptive suffering, offering up his pain in union with Christ’s Passion. This is not escapism; it is the mystery of the Cross: that out of suffering, love and grace can oveTogether, Lai and Tai embody the spirit of Colossians 1:24, where Paul says, “Now I rejoice in my sufferings for your sake… for the sake of his body, that is, the church.” Their trials are not merely personal—they are sacrificial offerings for a greater good: the hope of freedom for future generatioTheir faith is not passive; it is prophetic. Cardinal Zen, now in his 90s and a mentor to both men, remains unafraid to speak truth to power. His example continues to inspire them. He reminds us that the Church must stand where Christ stands: with the persecuted, the poor, and the imprisoned.Jimmy Lai and Benny Tai are not heroes simply because they suffer. They are heroes because they have found purpose in their suffering—offering it up for justice, for their people, and for God. Their lives form part of a divine tapestry—a pattern of faith, sacrifice, and hope stitched into the story And through them, we are reminded: In Christ, no suffering is wasted. No suffering is purposeless.

A Hypothetical Case for a Liberal Hong Kong and a Liberal China

Since the Self-Strengthening Movement and constitutional reforms in the late Qing Dynasty, and all the way to the First Republic (the Republic of China) and the Second Republic (the People's Republic of China), the main obstacle to China's modern political system has been the failure to effectively China's latest version of the constitution, drafted in the 1980s, contains outdated provisions and clauses that restrict freedoms and weaken the separation of powers, aiming to provide modern China with a new constitution suitable for a free China. The drafting process of the new constitution and it1) A constitutional convention was convened, composed of representatives from all provinces and municipalities of China. Specifically, each province and municipality was determined based on its population ratio, with a total of 243 representatives reviewing and rewriting the constitution article by 2) The new constitution should establish the principles of freedom, separation of powers and a democratic system with Chinese characteristics.3) The executive branch (State Council) should be non-partisan, with all personnel, including the prime minister and deputy prime minister, not affiliated with any political party.4) The Prime Minister is elected by agreement among the four Deputy Prime Ministers, who in turn appoint his successor as Deputy Prime Minister.5) The National People's Congress is composed of 243 representatives elected by each province and municipality, who are selected from among county and village representatives, who are in turn elected by local people. The allocation of the National People's Congress will be determined by the populati6) The 243 deputies in the National People's Congress will elect a chairman to preside over the agenda of the National People's Congress and the order of reviewing bills.7) The current CPPCC will be incorporated into the legislative system and elected by proportional representation from all walks of life.8) A representative can be a member of both the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, and can also belong to both the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference respectively.9) Each CPPCC representative elects a CPPCC chairman who is responsible for deciding the order in which bills are submitted to the NPC.10) The legislative process begins with the CPPCC formulating policies, which are then put to a vote by the National People's Congress. Two agencies11) The judiciary is headed by the president, whose main responsibility is to ensure the correct functioning of the constitution, a new one drafted by the National People's Congress.12) The president and five other chief justices make up the Constitutional Court, which is responsible for conducting judicial review of policies implemented by the State Council or laws passed by the National People's Congress. When there is a 3-3 tie in a judicial review case, the president has th13) The president can take the initiative to sue the legislature or the State Council for unconstitutionality, and have the case heard by the Constitutional Court.14) The President is the head of the three branches of government (the President of the Judiciary, the Prime Minister of the Executive and the Chairman of the Legislature) and is also the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces.15) The military is loyal to the constitution and is led by the president of the judicial branch.16) The executive and judicial systems, including the president, strictly maintain political neutrality. The president is elected through consultation among the six chief justices and will select his successor as chief justice.17) Since the legislature is formed through democratic voting, in principle, laws enacted by the elected legislature can be implemented as long as they do not violate the constitution (Legislative supremacy). At the same time, the procedure for amending the Constitution must first be proposed by the18) The new China will initially consist of five autonomous regions, two special administrative regions, four municipalities directly under the Central Government, and 23 provinces. Among them, five autonomous regions each voted to maintain the status quo or become special administrative regions. 1919) Taiwan should also hold a vote to choose to maintain the status quo or to join China and become a special administrative region.20) Each special administrative region is also required to formulate its own basic law to clarify the relationship between the region and the central government.21) One or two official languages ​​for each SAR will be chosen by each SAR individually.22) In addition to military and diplomatic powers, the SAR has its own system including legislative, executive, and judicial powers. The electoral system of each special administrative region is purely an internal affair of each special administrative region.23) Each SAR has its own Basic Law, which is negotiated between the central government and the elected representatives of each SAR.The new constitution establishes the principle of separation of powers and tilts more power towards the judiciary, as China's past failures were largely a failure in the practice of the rule of law. By placing the president and commander-in-chief of the armed forces in the judiciary, it is hoped thaIn Hong Kong, the key changes to the Basic Law are as follows:1) The Basic Law is written in English and Traditional Chinese, the two official languages ​​of Hong Kong. In the event of any discrepancy between the English and Chinese versions, the English version shall prevail.2) To ensure that the NPC’s interpretation of laws is limited to diplomatic and military matters, and that only judges of the Court of Final Appeal can petition the NPC for interpretation of laws. Neither the NPC nor the executive and legislative bodies of Hong Kong can petition the NPC for interpre3) Like constitutions around the world, the Basic Law is only used to limit and interpret government power. There is no possibility that citizens or any legal person may violate the Basic Law.

一國兩制1.0就是捍衛自由———「一國兩制」過時了嗎？

經過過去二十八年的蹂躪及中港政府的無限曲解，很多人認為一個兩制及基本法已經過時並聲譽破產了，以後香港的發展只能在港獨及併入大陸兩個極端中二選一。我們認為要捍衛香港自由無須走向極端的獨立，只需重返一國兩制及基本法的初衷並加入或強調收改其中兩三條條例即可。有這種極端想法的同路人其實也不無道理。很多東西原義是好的，卻被摧殘得不可修復或只少公關上不宜再提。立場法會功能組別便是一例。功能組別的原意是讓立法會有不同職業的代表，比起地區直選更能反映各行各業的情況及意見。彭定康的新九組便是讓所有屬於某職業的人也有權利投票該職業的代表，結果令各行業在立法會皆有其代議仕。但隨着後來共產黨將功能組別的選民基礎大幅縮小至公司票及行業內小數既利益者的票，功能組別便公關破產了。有龐大選民基礎的功能組別不再被考慮，整個功能組別被打成是反民主、既得利益的代名詞，確立了地區直選才是立法機關民主化的道路，即便功能組別若被善用可能能達到更佳的民主效果。一國兩制便是陷入了這種公關危機。基本法因多年的曲解、一國兩制經歷過去幾次的失敗讓很多人認為一國兩制已經破產更甚是從來只是一個騙局。我們之所以不這樣看除了因為獨立或併入皆是極端選項，重返一國兩制初心及嚴受基本法才是最能平衡各方利益並為香港帶來最大自由的選項。首先基本法本來是一本挺自由、司法獨立及各種自由包括言論自由的憲法。裡面除了有大量保障人權的條例外，更重要的是確立了香港的半獨立地位，也就是除了外交、軍事外的事務皆由特區自己決定（包括普選問題）。只是中央不停在基本法上潛建釋法並忽略執行其保障人權的條款，才會使基本法及一國兩制的聲譽如此狼藉。另外，我們也考慮到獨立雖是最能保障香港自身利益的選項，但它只是一個留於空談、缺乏現實基礎的理想主義產物。且看台灣，其有美國長期支持，並有台海天險可收，更己脫離中國大陸統治接近八十年，也未能宣報獨來。相反香港獨立的選項不要說中共必然打壓，甚至西方民主社會也勸喻香港不要走獨立之路。我們可以負責任地說返回一國兩制及基本法的初心才是對香港自由民主經濟獨立的最佳保障。這不是回頭路————因為根本從未好好實施過，也不是過時————而是最適未來香港民主自由的起點。就好像最近李嘉誠賣巴拿馬運河貨櫃碼頭的爭議，基本法原本已確立了私有產權：香港基本法對財產權的保護主要來自以下幾個條文：第六條：這條規定了香港特別行政區（香港）享有高度的自治權，包括在不違反基本法的情況下，香港有權根據自身的法律制度保障私人財產。具體來說，這意味著香港可以自行立法來保護財產權，並且無論是對物權還是對債權，都應該依法保障。第105條：這條文規定了香港特區要保護私人財產的權利，包括合法的財產不會被非法侵占，並且禁止徵收財產，除非是基於公共需要且按法定程序進行賠償。具體來說，第105條中指出：香港特區應保護財產權，禁止對財產的非法侵害。在徵收財產的情況下，必須符合合理和必要的公共目的，並且要按公正的賠償標準支付賠償。第16條：該條文對香港特區的立法權進行規定，允許香港根據實際情況自行立法，但其立法過程和內容不得違反基本法的要求，包括對財產權的保護。簡而言之，香港基本法中的第6條和第105條是主要保障財產權的條文，強調了對私人財產的尊重、保護，以及徵收財產的必要程序和賠償要求。以上由AI產生的基本法條款基本上就兩個原則：1）禁止對財產的非法侵害。也就是說產權上的擁有權、轉移權、及收入權需受保護。2）即使以國家安全為由徵用或破壞私有財產，也需有必要程序（例如通過法院）及等額賠償（以此例來說就是那千多億港元的對價）所以其實基本法或一國兩制1.0皆能保障李嘉誠在此交易的權利。只是政府及中央網顧基本法，強行影響這個商業決定。至於防止中央再曲解潛建基本法，我們認為加入或重新強調兩三條條款即可：1) 基本法以香港的兩個官方語言————英語及繁體字寫成，若中英版本有所不同，則以英文版本為準。2) 人大釋法只限於外交及軍事層面，並只能由終審法院法官呈請人大釋法，人大及香港行政、立法機關皆不能單方面呈請或執行人大釋法。3) 與世界各地的憲法一樣，基本法僅用於限制及闡釋政府權力，不存在公民或任何法人違反基本法的情況。*黃色部份以Chatgpt4寫成

Seven Policies For Government to Consider--- 7.Reclamation that Links up Island East and Kowloon East

我認為維多利亞港填海比大嶼山或北都會填海更有價值。我建議連接港島東和九龍東。這不會對位於九龍西的貨櫃碼頭造成乾擾。我將未來在港島東和九龍東填海造地的土地稱為維多利亞城。維多利亞城的價值遠高於北都會或一些離島，因為它更接近香港中部，更容易成為我們的第三個中央商務區。此外，填海工程過程也更容易，因為填海工程只是從兩側擴大現有土地，而大嶼山和離島的填海工程大部分都是從無到有填海而成。該計畫面臨的最大障礙是《港口保護條例》和環保組織的反對聲音。前者可在立法會親政府的立場下輕鬆調整，以適應填海工程；如果政府堅持填海工程，立法會很可能會通過一項法律來取代現行的《保護港口條例》。至於後者，我相信已經存在更環保的回收方法。政府可以參考新加坡的填海過程，應該有對環境友善的填海方法。

Seven Policies For Government to Consider---6.Porn Tax

Norman Doidge, a psychiatrist and author known for his work on neuroplasticity, has discussed pornography in the context of brain rewiring. In The Brain That Changes Itself, he explains how excessive porn consumption can alter neural pathways, reinforcing compulsive behaviors and changing sexual preHis perspective aligns with broader concerns about the impact of porn on mental health, dopamine regulation, and behavioral addiction.Further to above, porn and masturbation reduce the birth rate as it is a substitute for actual sex.With the harmful effect of porn, I put it in the same category of cigarette and alcohol. Since we impose high taxes on the two to discourage people from consuming them, why not on porn, which is as harmful as the two?The main obstacle is how to collect such tax. I have no good personal proposal yet on how to collect but will continue searching. Deep Seek also provides several ways to collect porn tax, including referencing to sales tax, making use of Internet Service Providers (ISPs), and Mandatory licensing fee*Green part is generated by Deep Seek

Seven Policies For Government to Consider--- 5. Increase minimum wage of Foreign Domestic Helpers and Local Workers

I propose that in principle, FDH’s minimum wage should be adjusted upwards together with the increase in minimum wage. For the former, a more reasonable minimum wage should be HKD7500/month since they work much longer hour per day and more days per week compared to the local workers. Yet the increasWill the Policy End Up Hurting FDH and Local Workers?I can draw the reference to the previous execution of minimum wage. Before execution, many experts, economist and policy makers, were worried that it will hurt employment and hence lead to higher unemployment rate. Practice after the imposition of minimum wage, show that unemployment rate was unaffeAnother issue that may end up hurting the FDH is demand elasticity. First of all, though FDH competes with local workers, I believe they are of two different markets. The former stand-by almost 6/24, even after the normal working hours of about 12 hours; the latter serves only part-time, at a hourlySo it leads to a simple elasticity of demand problem. I believe the demand for FDH and local workers are inelastic because it is hard to find substitute for 1) FDH market is separate to local market as mentioned above; and 2) FDH helps the middle class family by letting parents to work in their respLastly, Some Political ImplicationsThe increased wages give more power to Hong Kong, and hence China, over the countries the FDHs come from, most notably the Philippines. and Indonesia In a world where China is engaging with the Philippines on the South Sea sovereignty, the heightened income from Hong Kong (China) to Philippines and

Seven Policies For Government to Consider--- 4. Legalization of Gay Marriage

Case Study of Taiwan’s Experience of Legalized Gay MarriageAs of today, Taiwan is the only Asian country that has legalized gay marriage (since 2019). The enhanced human rights and social inclusion alone raise the image of Taiwan among Western countries. Reputation aside, legalization of gay marriage also bring about moderate economic benefit to Taiwan. FirHong Kong CaseWhile the effect of legalized gay marriage has largely been beneficial to Hong Kong, there are a few social and political differences between Hong Kong and Taiwan, that makes Hong Kong case significantly different from Taiwan. Nonetheless, at the end of the day, legalized gay marriage will bring morAs mentioned, the harms are social and political. Socially, Hong Kong’s society is much closed about same-sex love, let alone same-sex marriage. Same sex which means the society is not ready for legalized marriage yet. Homosexuality is still a taboo in Hong Kong, which means the society is not readyBut as mentioned above, we still have faith that gay marriage is workable in Hong Kong. First and foremost, aside from benefiting from gay marriage tourism, legalization of gay marriage will draw much more Mainland and international talents that tend to stay longer in Hong Kong as they can more easiSecond, because the gain outlast the coast, the government should roll out more propaganda on promoting equality between heterosexuality and homosexuality. Though LGBT right is largely acknowledged in jobs from the Government or western firms, SMEs mostly still do not have such clause and may discri 

Seven Policies For Government to Consider--- 3. Building more Water Desalination Plants

First I do a Deepseak of the percentage share of each origin of water in Hong Kong.In Hong Kong, the water supply comes from three main sources: local yield, the Dongjiang (East River) from Guangdong Province, and desalinated water. Here's a general breakdown of their percentage shares:Dongjiang (East River) Water: The majority of Hong Kong's water supply, approximately 70-80%, comes from the Dongjiang in Guangdong Province. This is the primary source due to Hong Kong's limited local water resources.Local Yield: Local water sources, including rainfall collected in reservoirs, account for about 20-30% of the total supply. However, this percentage can vary significantly depending on rainfall patterns.Desalinated Water: Desalination contributes a small but growing share, currently around 1-2%, as part of Hong Kong's efforts to diversify its water sources and enhance water security. The Tseung Kwan O Desalination Plant, commissioned in recent years, is expected to increase this share over time.These percentages can fluctuate based on factors such as rainfall, water demand, and infrastructure.The percentage share of Water desalination plant is obviously small and local yielded sources vary significant depending on rainfall pattern. Therefore the majority of Hong Kong’s water supply comes from Dongjiang (East River) water from Mainland China. This is unsustainable for two reasons: first, For the specific implementation such as the location of more desalination water plants is pending more information. Preliminarily, there are to be built in Lantau Island, outlying islands such as Cheung Chua or Lamma Island, and Tseung Kwan O (for expansion). Among the options, I favoring expanding *The green part is generated by Deepseek.

Resolving Government’s Structural Deficit––– 2. Imposition of Inheritance Tax to Widen Tax Base

Background and IntroductionChina overhauled its policy of pegging RMB to USD in 2005, which makes RMB peg to a basket of currencies according to trade share. However, the majority of weighting still goes to USD. It means the valuation of RMB is mostly determined by movement in USD, which raises the question of over-reliance oBefore we get into the idea of pegging RMB with a Basket of Commodities, we should assess the most intuitive solution, which is the de-peg everything and make the RMB a fiat currency just like the USD or Euro. The fiat currencies have several problems that make it an inferior alternative to pegging Hence, should the Chinese government intend to lift the capital flow restriction or reduce the reliance on USD, we need to find alternatives to the fiat money choice. And pegging RMB with a basket of commodities, a creative and sensible proposition by Steven N.S. Cheung, is worth considering.ImplementationFirst, choose a basket of 20-40 commodities such as crude oil, corn, grain, soybean, wheat, cotton, and more. Second, make each individual commodities chosen a RMB-denominated futures market. Third, make an index of commodities weighed by the trading value of each commodities in the beginning of a yAdvantages of Pegging RMB with a Basket of Commodities1.The government does not need to hold the basket of commodities physically (unlike other pegs like Hong Kong’s peg to USD, which needs to accumulate a USD currency reserve to defend the peg), as trading on the futures market is sufficient in defending the peg.2.It releases the reliance on USD and other major currencies like Euro, JPY, and other G10 currencies. RMB can finally compete with the major currencies, mostly the USD. There is every chance that other smaller economy can peg with the RMB, since it has something concrete (commodities), unlike othe3.Interest rate will be fully determined by the market, as the government no longer needs it to implement monetary policies. As interest rate is an important price (of capital), handing it back to the market to determine will be the best practice. Fiat money needs to adjust the interest rate time t4.Foreign Reserve will no longer be needed. This means the close to USD3 trillion foreign reserve can be gradually sold in the market, releasing a huge amount of capital for the market or state-owned enterprises.5.China will be ready for lifting the capital inflow and outflow restriction, as the peg to a basket of commodities is difficult to speculate or launch vicious campaign on. As the basket of commodities is denominated in denominated in RMB, which means China can simply print money to finance the defRole of Hong Kong and CNHAs such reform in RMB or CNY markets are too risky and large to implement. It is best to experiment the policy with a smaller offshore RMB currencies Therefore, It is where Hong Kong can step in as the largest trading center of the offshore RMB currency of CNH. The Central Government can simply moniIt will be a showcase of how Hong Kong can help China’s development under One-Country- Two- Systems.

Seven Policies For Government to Consider--- 1b. Luxury Goods Tax as Short Term Deficit Relief

The inheritance/gift tax discussed in the last article mentioned deal with government structural and long-term deficit. For short term deficit relief, I believe a luxury goods tax will lessen part of the deficit through raising government revenue and widening the tax base.We suggest, preliminarily, an 8% blanket tax for luxury goods of over HKD10K. Compared to the sales tax, which was hotly debated in the previous round of budget deficit during 1998-2004, luxury goods tax does not affect the mass public. It more likely affects tourist especially those from mainland. *Tax rate and tax bracket are pending more accurate statistics from internal government departments.

Seven Policies For Government to Consider--- 1a. Tackle Structural Deficit and Widen Tax Base through Inheritance Tax

Background and IntroductionGovernment has balance deficit for 3 straight year by now, with an accumulation of around HKD310 billion deficit. While the government and Financial Secretary project the deficit as short-term, but there is every possibility that the deficit will become structural.And unlike large economy like the US and China, which can monetized their debt, Hong Kong as a small and completely open economy cannot do the same or raise debt indefinitely, because of three restriction. Firstly the government has to maintain the Linked Exchange Rate System, which means our monetaThe crust of the long-term or structural problem is the Government’s narrow tax base. The government has talked about widening tax base for two decades by now. It comes up with some proposed policies such as sales tax, but all of them are considered complicating the tax code and are regressive in naFinancial Secretary Paul Chan has stipulated three criteria for widening the tax base or raising the revenue while decreasing the expenditure: 1) It must not interfere with the living of the mass. 2) The rich or the able should pay more for the poor or the not able, which implies that users pay for We believe that a resumption of inheritance tax (gift tax), which was abolished in 2006 to simplify the tax code, should be recovered. It broaden the tax base and violate the least of the tri-criteria. First it affects the mass public the least since it targets at the richest population in Hong KongI note that the government is rolling out other more petty measures to reduce expenditure and raise revenue. Most of such measures involve cutting welfare spending (thus affecting the masses) or increasing service fee (again affecting the masses), let alone the fact that they are petty measures thatImplementation: The Public-Private Partnership and Positive FeedbackI suggest the government begins the tax bracket from estates of HKD300million onwards as the definition of middle class is HKD1million to HKD300million (excluding the self-occupied property) so that it only aims at the rich class and does not add burden to the middle class or the lower class. The suAsset Values (HKD)Tax PercentageEstimated Number of People in this Bracket*300milllion 15%1billion 20%5billion 25%10billion 30%*pending government statistics on the wealth distribution of Hong KongMost importantly, there is a tax allowance of up to HKD50million given to the inheritance tax payer if they set a pro bono organization (like the Tung Wah Group) or foundation (like the Our Hong Kong Foundation). It will reduce government expenditure on welfare in the long-run and almost permanentlyIn summary, such tax allowance is a form of public-private partnership that the government has been advocating for a decade now. It simply transmit the government expenditure on welfare and related civil servant to the private sector (pro bono organization), which is kind of the relics of “smaller g

由公開走到地下的核武試驗

1945年，奧本海默及其團隊在美國新墨西哥州成功試爆核武，此後半世紀無論大國小國都爭相要擁有這來自死神的武器。對統治者來說，核武是恫嚇的手段，但對庶民而言，看過廣島和長崎的末世景象後，就更擔憂國家核武時釋放的放射性塵埃。所以在1963年美國、英國和蘇聯在莫斯科簽署《部分禁止核試驗條約》（PTBT），禁止地下核試驗外所有核試，令核試離開公眾眼球，開始變得地下化。 雖然PTBT禁止非地下核試，但要到1980年代所有擁核國家才願意遵守規範（北韓除外），而1945年以來，各國已進行逾2,000多次核試，次數最多為美國、蘇聯、法國、英國、中國、印度、巴基斯坦和北韓。執行上，核試其實是測試炸彈或彈頭裝置的