Post-Election U.S. fiscal policy can still cause stress in the Treasury market given the unsustainable U.S. budget deficit and the high risk of a rating agency downgrade in H1 2025.

However, 10yr U.S. Treasury yields above 4% now have a buffer and the prospect for Fed policy is also important. If the economy remains resilient then post-election fiscal stress could push 10yr to 4.5% yields, but if the soft v hard landing debate reignites then Treasuries could be dominated.