The U.S. election remains very close though a win for former President Donald Trump appears slightly more likely than one for Vice President Kamala Harris. The race for control of the House is also close, though here a Democrat majority looks marginally more likely.

For the Senate, a Republican majority is clearly the more likely outcome, but far from assured. This means a large number of possible outcomes, though Trump’s tariff proposals look to be by far the biggest risk for post-election policy, and uncertainty on this issue is likely to persist for some time if Trump wins the election.