Canadian Election

The timing of Canada's election is a calculated result, with Carney defeating the palace-pressuring Freeland to win the party leadership, becoming a new prime minister who hasn't even participated in a general election. With Canada facing a formidable enemy, the nation is united in hatred against the common foe, which coincidentally provides the Liberal Party with the best opportunity to cleanse its tarnished reputation and counter the Conservative Party.

Online supporters of various parties continuously emphasize that only a certain party can represent the interests of a particular group or community. Although Hong Kongers have benefited from the Liberal Party's lifeboat plan, the increase in study permits and refugee visas issued during the Liberal Party's tenure has caused a massive backlog in permanent residency applications. Under these strained circumstances, many Hong Kongers have turned to support the NDP New Democratic Party and the Conservative Party. That said, it's important to remember that most Hong Kongers are not Canadian citizens. Despite their loud voices in the media, the actual impact they can make might be negligible, as only citizens have the right to vote.

Political party support, behind the simple act of voting, can have complex motivations. As Qian Zhongshu once said, "Righteous and stern shouts are sometimes a disguise for the decline of literary creativity, sometimes the anger of despair in life, sometimes a test of changing careers, sometimes the jealousy of middle-aged people seeing others still young." Party politics and voters each take what they need; it's both a transaction and a way to express opinions, encompassing both science and art.

When considering voting behavior, the following considerations can be made.

Rules and Framework

Rules and frameworks are essentially design issues; the goals determine the system. What needs to be considered in the design is what goals such a system aims to achieve.

Single-Member Plurality vs. Proportional Representation

Like the UK, Canada uses the single-member plurality system. Across all electoral districts nationwide, each district has one seat, one person one vote. The party with the most winning MPs can gain control of the parliament if it secures a majority. This voting method is straightforward, enabling a party to form a government, often leading to a two-party dominance. Because if you're a voter, you'd naturally want to vote for the party most likely to win and closest to your political views. If three parties are in a deadlock and voters can foresee this from opinion polls, supporters of the third party might reconsider placing their votes on someone more likely to win—human nature.

This differs from Hong Kong's design, which operates under an executive-led political system. The Legislative Council doesn't need to determine the ruling party; its role is to listen to opinions as much as possible after government proposals. Thus, the proportional representation system adopts the largest remainder method, more akin to a multi-member single-vote system, aiming to accommodate diverse opinions and limit the size of parties. Additionally, introducing functional constituencies and group votes can be seen as part of achieving desired outcomes from the system design, not elaborated here.

Provincial vs. National Elections

Back in the day, learning from Professor De Gaulle, the professor praised Professor Huang Hehui's article on district elections, where Professor Huang used some Regression Models to counter-prove that winning in district council elections could increase votes in legislative elections. Of course, now that the Legislative Council has been reorganized, how citizens vote in the new political environment, where most parties share similar political views, remains to be seen.

One difference between Canada and Hong Kong is that provincial and national elections are like water and oil, generally not mixing. Typically, each province has its own different Conservative and Liberal parties, and so on, their composition and stances not subordinate to federal parties. For example, Ontario's Doug Ford recently won the Ontario election overwhelmingly, aiming to strengthen bargaining power with Trump. There's always been a history of mutual games between the federal and provincial governments. Under one country with multiple provinces, each can have different understandings and responses to foreign forces or current affairs. Although Ford leads Ontario's Conservative Party, he can scoff at Poilievre's policies or campaign strategies.

Recently, dissatisfaction within the Conservative Party over Poilievre's campaign strategy led Ford to defend his former campaign manager's public criticism of Poilievre, merely saying: "Sometimes the truth hurts." Clearly, there's no PR speaking strategy considering major interests or campaign considerations.

Under the framework, we can consider the short and long-term impacts of various influencing factors together. The weight of each factor depends on different orientations across provinces and individuals.

General Considerations

These considerations affect all countries and regions, though other factors can also influence other aspects of elections. Here are a few examples.

Political Left and Right – Spatial Theory

A Downs proposed the so-called election theory that parties are positioned on a political spectrum, so voters only vote for parties close to them on this spectrum. In the Manifesto Project, parties' election claims have been listed and digitized. Generally speaking, in Canada:

NDP/Green are left-wing

Bloc Québécois is center-left

Liberal is slightly left of center

Conservative is center-right

People’s Party is right-wing

But beyond this, the left and right cannot accurately capture the differences between parties. Besides attitudes in political economy, the Canadian political system also involves discussions on federal and provincial autonomy.

The Liberal Party can be considered the most federalist among all parties, with carbon taxes and federal spending aimed at redistributing and supporting different provinces as its main policy ideas. The NDP and Green Party slightly emphasize provincial sovereignty more than the Liberals, but due to their redistribution and environmental policies, the federal government still holds significant importance. The Conservative Party's conservatism advocates for a small government, tax cuts, eliminating carbon taxes, developing the economy and business activities, with its core ideology seen as economic liberalism favoring provinces over the federal government, similar to the Quebec Party's demand for greater provincial autonomy from the federal government.

Thus, in policy claims, although the Conservatives and the Bloc both demand federal power reduction, policy orientations in French-speaking regions lean more left, and the federal government has always favored the uniquely positioned French-speaking regions, such as allowing them to self-determine carbon taxes and the right for applicants to settle in French-speaking areas.

Age, Gender, Participation

In Canada, older people are more likely to vote, with voting rates increasing with age. Additionally, the average age varies by province, with the Prairie provinces and the Northern territories being younger on average.

Party supporters vary: women and young voters tend to favor the Liberals, NDP, and Greens; middle-aged voters lean towards the Conservatives; older voters tend to support the Liberals.

According to a CBC report, male voters are more inclined towards progressive economic policies (increasing taxes on the wealthy, more government services) but are culturally more conservative (reducing immigration, less gender diversity openness), a view that contrasts with women's uniformity in economic and cultural stances (either fully progressive or fully conservative). There's less discussion and controversy over religion and politics, focusing instead on traditional family values and personal freedoms.

Moreover, interestingly, older voters are more inclined to support the Liberals. Under Trudeau's leadership over the past nine years, the Liberals have nearly faced electoral defeat, with their housing and immigration policies consistently criticized: persistently high housing prices, excessive immigration without matching health or employment support. Trudeau has bluntly stated that housing isn't the federal government's responsibility and that preventing a housing market crash is necessary to protect retirees' plans. The influx of immigrants, coupled with maintaining government welfare policies, gives older voters more reasons to vote Liberal rather than Conservative.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-housing-responsible-feds-provinces-1.6924290

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-trudeau-house-prices-affordability/

Regional Considerations

Different regions, based on their specific cultural and economic conditions, have fixed supporters for various parties.

Prairie Provinces 65 Seats

Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan are key areas for oil and agriculture, supporting the Conservative Party's policies of canceling carbon taxes, deregulation, and tax cuts. Located in the west, these provinces often feel controlled by policies set by the eastern political center. Their self-sufficient lifestyle, entrepreneurial spirit, and rural voter base give the Conservatives stable support outside a few major urban areas (Calgary, Edmonton).

Urban Provinces 165 Seats

Ontario and British Columbia have larger urban populations (Toronto, Mississauga in Ontario; Vancouver, Victoria in British Columbia), so their major urban areas prefer supporting the Liberals or NDP for more socially progressive policies. The NDP's support for the Liberals in the last government left some supporters feeling betrayed, likely leading to significant seat losses in the upcoming election amidst the US-Canada tensions. Outside major cities, the Conservatives have some support.

Northern Territories 3 Seats

Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut are vast, sparsely populated areas, totaling about over 100,000 people, mainly indigenous, with only three seats. Traditionally contested between the NDP and Liberals, given their respect for minority cultures and heavy reliance on federal support. But with only one seat each, CBC's polls often omit them. Essentially, one Ontario district equals one of the entire Northern territories.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Atlantic Provinces 32 Seats

Atlantic Canada poses a challenge for the Conservatives, mainly due to its thriving fishing industry. However, fishing is seasonal, and during off-seasons, most fishermen rely on employment insurance for living expenses, creating unfairness compared to year-round industries like the Prairie provinces' livestock and oil sectors. Plus, the Atlantic provinces' proximity to the French-speaking region's liberal-left ideology means their basic support leans Liberal. Past Conservative cuts to employment insurance angered local fishermen.

https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/stephen-harper-s-new-employment-insurance-rules-whack-ontario-hard-walkom/article_5f511742-55cc-58e4-9909-51f853fa1431.html

Quebec 78 Seats

Quebec's unique French status, under the Liberals' strong federalism, still enjoys considerable autonomy. It's said that if the Liberals can't secure federal election control in Quebec, they generally can't win the election. The Liberals have deep roots in Quebec; the Trudeau family hails from there, with Montreal's airport named PET "Pierre Elliott Trudeau" Airport. Interestingly, while federal elections in Quebec are contested between the Liberals and the Bloc, the provincial parliament is controlled by a center-right party (Coalition Avenir Québec), much like Ontario.

The Bloc is the only federal-level regional party running solely in Quebec. Despite flying the Quebec flag, its support currently lags behind the Liberals. Quebec's outcome is determined between the Bloc and the Liberals; the Conservatives have some support but not enough, with CBC polls showing no change since 2021.

Election-Specific Considerations

Beyond static factors determining Carney's pre-campaign status, this election also involves

Valence Issue – A party's ability to change on key issues

Opposite to Spatial Theory is Valence, which refers to which party is more capable of changing the status quo on key issues. This was a mainstream theory I encountered during my master's in Manchester, UK, in 2014.

Spatial Theory, based on the political spectrum and demographic data (including income, education, gender), determines party support—this is the old view. The new generation tends to focus solely on key single issues of concern to voters, unrestricted by other non-policy or personal political expression voting behaviors. In modern society, party political issues are no longer singular; per capita income and social mobility vary greatly, and international cultural, economic, political, and military exchanges and discussions are interrelated. Thus, static, less-changing voter background data no longer explains voting behavior.

We can explain, through psychology, the limited cognitive capacity humans have to process issues simultaneously why voters might switch between completely different parties—because policies aren't livestock, not quantifiable by weight. Voting, like other human behaviors, isn't entirely rational or deliberate.

Starting in 2023, Canadians have long been discontent with the Liberals. From 2023 to February 2025, if an election were held, the Conservatives would likely secure an absolute majority. But with Trump's rise, seeing Canada in national peril, people set aside past grievances to elect Carney, who has more international experience than Poilievre. Carney knows well, performing steadily in two debates, emphasizing "Elbows Up" in campaign ads to protect Canada's economy and jobs against current US challenges, rarely defending the Liberals' record, stressing he's new, not Trudeau.

Campaign Strategy – Foreign Enemies vs. Domestic Affairs

The Conservatives' focus isn't on diplomacy but on the economy (tax cuts) and crime, with Poilievre also criticized for lacking diplomatic skills compared to Carney. Many Conservatives argue the campaign should target the US, the topic voters want to hear. Personally, if diplomacy isn't a strength, Poilievre debating on such issues would only highlight his lack of diplomatic experience compared to Carney, better hoping voters have short memories.

Shy Conservative Voters – Conservatives Not Polled

In the US election, initial polls suggested Harris and Trump were neck and neck, later revealing many conservative supporters (Trump) were consistently underestimated in polls. We might also say outspoken socially progressive parties like the NDP, Liberals, and Bloc are more willing to be polled. Current polls show the Liberals leading, but the gap doesn't guarantee results, though PolyMarket already shows an 80-20 split, tempting for those wanting to try their luck.