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美國民主制度不好，難道回歸中國方式？
美國總統大選，特朗普回歸，支持賀錦麗的選民呼天搶地，連許多平時理性的美國知識分子也哀嚎：美國的民主出了大問題。 美國的議會民主制度沒有問題，是輸打贏要、大量長期被左翼意識形態洗了腦的人的心智才有問題。 民主普選並非最好的制度。前首相邱吉爾說過：但這是經過其他多種制度試驗之後，民主普選被證實是害處最小的制度。 邱吉爾不但是軍事家，也是政治家，也是歷史學家。民主普選當然有問題，古希臘的柏拉圖就曾經提出：一旦選民缺乏教育，知識淺薄，不懂得思考，政客鼓其如簧之舌，開空頭支票，哄騙民意，可以憑欺詐上台，為國家造成損失。 柏拉圖認為：一個理想的社會，不能有民主普選，只能由智者精英，亦即所謂Philosopher King 來統治。 而Philosopher King (簡稱PK)又如何選拔？柏拉圖沒有說。這個PK做了理想國的國王之後，其性格會不會變化？權力會令人腐化，再品格純正君子的哲人PK，在擁有權力之後也會傲慢自大，也會認為自己是天才，也會淪為真正的PK。 柏拉圖也沒有答案，只是口口聲聲說：選民的質素沒有保證，選民容易聽信謊言。這一點沒有錯。因此人類古往今來，從來未能實驗出一個完全理想的制度，在西方，在教育普及、教育質素有保證的大前提下，只能實現一個最合理的制度。發現選錯了領袖，四五年一度，即刻可以換人。而且三權分立，互相制衡，確保領袖不會濫用權力。 因此，華盛頓確立的美國議會民主制度沒有問題，出了問題的是美國教育的內容。近二十年來，暗藏的馬克思或共產主義者「精英」在美國中小學的課程加入了大量左派意識形態的毒素，鼓吹同性戀主流、鼓勵變性手術，經濟民生次要，美國的選民反而有常識，不必有哈佛學位，用選票將許多博士碩士的左翼政客趕了下台。 美國的議會民主有問題，那麼難道回歸到中國的君主制就萬事大吉？ 許多年一票選舉權也沒有的中國人，難免歡呼雀躍，幸災樂禍，基於其長期的民族自卑感與自大狂，有這樣的情緒反應也很易理解。 然而中國的君主制，必然也是極權嗎？「禮運大同篇」對於中國領袖的產生方式，只有四個字，叫做「選言語能」。選賢與能，與柏拉圖的精英管治相同。只是沒有詳細說明：是如何「選」法？當選的能人，任期有多長？權力會不會腐化？在這方面與柏拉圖一樣，也欠缺了細節。 中國的君主制度走向專政，當然由秦始皇開始。但在秦始皇之後，也不是沒有回歸過一點常理。例如唐宋兩代的皇帝，由唐太宗道宋太祖，由宋太祖到宋徽宗，沒有一個是秦始皇一類的暴君，大多數有聽取意見的胸襟。譬如唐代，皇帝並非一人決斷，而是由一個類似中國國務院一樣的「中書省」來商議。中樞省有大學士多名，為首的那個叫做「中書令」，相當於宰相。重大政策由中書省合庭商議產生，中書令蓋章，再交付另一個叫做「門下」的機構 唐宋兩代近七百年，沿用這套管治方式，沒有獨裁，也沒有帝王的暴政，與柏拉圖的理想國非常相似，而且比理想國好： PK不是一個人，而是一大群人， PK階級之內有商有量，也有爭論， PK之上，才是皇帝。而對於皇帝的要求，也有「內聖外王」的儒家道德鞭策。 其中出現過宰相王安石變法事件，但王安石沒有軍事政變奪權。因此，中國人從前施行過精英統治，精英由科舉產生，來自民間。這套制度其實不錯，今日都成為歷史。 英國考公務員，叫做Mandarin，也是來自唐宋科舉的靈感。對美國的民主制度不滿意，可以參考中國制度，不過不是秦始皇和毛澤東這一頭一尾的暴政，而是取其中段。 美國的漢學家對中國文化一知半解，否則面對今日的亂局，是他們應該在美國大聲疾呼的時候。但他們沒有，將輿論交給了TikTok的民粹。
陶傑
1 month ago
Can Trump succeed?
Translated by AITrump's strong rise to power has drawn global attention. Everyone says this charismatic strongman president's behavior is unpredictable; however, it is precisely due to the eight years of Obama and how various crises in today's world have worsened that makes it unpredictable.In order for the world to be filled with chaos and disorder, the United States needs a leader capable of responding to the unpredictable. This illustrates how many people misunderstand Trump.Politics is determined by human behavior, which is influenced by emotions and different cultural mindsets, often leading to irrationality. Therefore, politics is not a science. Yet, as humans are part of society, historical changes and fluctuations have their own set of rules.Because human nature has many dark sides, power corrupts, and monarchs can be arrogant, like spoiled children, human behavior can often be predicted. The laws of social change, upon reflection, also show a pattern.Trump's "unpredictability" is not the real issue; the true question is why the West and humanity find themselves in an unprecedented predicament today.Trump is a leader who has faced the worst public scrutiny since the founding of the United States. During his last four years, American society, including mainstream media, never treated one of its own presidents fairly or objectively. The bias against Trump stems from his business dealings before eOf course, Trump’s economic policies also have significant hidden concerns. For example, he cannot compel the next generation of Americans to return to the industrious spirit of their grandparents in the 1950s and go back to factories. Whether the U.S. can revive its industry depends on American busHowever, can this move counterbalance the inflation effects caused by tariffs on Chinese imports? How do the two relate? Governing a country of 300 million people, Americans’ minimum wage and working hours are increasing, and Trump cannot cut back in that area. Thus, shadows loom over Trump’s economNonetheless, America’s advantage is that it is America. What other countries cannot achieve with Britain, America has the opportunity to do. The U.S. is the world's largest consumer nation and also has abundant energy resources. American culture and military dominance claim global supremacy, and theTrump and his team must recognize that their Eastern adversary has a 3,000-year culture and the strategic cunning of Sun Tzu, being ten times more astute and difficult than Russia’s Putin.Facing a mountain of domestic issues, four years is certainly not enough for Trump. A friend of mine in an international school in Hong Kong has a daughter who, not yet in her sixth year of secondary school, has already returned to tell her parents that she identifies as "Tran." The parents, perplexIf this is the situation in Hong Kong, it highlights the immense influence of the American left and demonstrates America’s strong impact. America’s greatest strength lies in its influence. Trump’s election terrified the German Chancellor, prompting her to call for early elections, and it’s believed Trump possesses a Moses-like power to lead his people across the Red Sea; more and more people believe that God will intervene at critical moments, just like a bullet that passes through without harm.
陶傑
1 month ago
Reflecting on Hong Kong from the Perspective of American Democratic Elections
Translated by AI:The U.S. presidential election features a unique "Electoral College" system, which has attracted significant global attention and scrutiny.The "Electoral College" is well-known; it does not simply involve a straightforward majority vote from the American electorate. In this regard, Taiwan's presidential elections are arguably more democratic than those in the United States.Furthermore, the presidential candidates of the two major U.S. parties are not chosen through "citizen nominations." Instead, they are determined by internal assessments of public opinion conducted by various interest groups within the parties.The U.S. Congress is divided into two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate. Although elections are held every two years, the two chambers function like the upper and lower levels of a bus. After a bill passes the House, it must be submitted to the Senate, and both chambers must apprIn contrast, the British Parliament consists of an upper house and a lower house, with some members of the upper house being hereditary peers and a significant portion appointed by the Prime Minister. For example, after leaving his political career, Chris Patten was appointed as a member of the HousFrom these examples, it’s clear that the electoral systems in the UK and the U.S. do not constitute "universal suffrage." Both countries have had their electoral methods in place for at least 200 years, but the question remains: are they functioning well? Can they guarantee the election of perfect lIn the U.S., ballots can be mailed in advance or cast electronically. However, the media does not report on where these mailed ballots are stored or if they have been moved during that time, and there is no paparazzi following them around twenty-four hours a day. In contrast, in most democratic counThe model of "universal suffrage" proposed in Hong Kong aligns with the former pro-democracy camp's consistent stance: that the chief executive candidates must be nominated by citizens, and all Legislative Council seats should be directly elected. Some have questioned: if a candidate like "Long HairConsider this: you are all human, born equal. Do you think this situation is equal?If it is not equal, then should this structural inequality in Hong Kong be changed? If you elect me as chief executive, I promise that large corporations with profits exceeding 500 million will have to pay 70% in corporate taxes. The taxes collected will be redistributed to impoverished citizens livIf "universal suffrage" were implemented, I believe there would be more than a 50% chance that Mr. Leung Kwok-hung would become the chief executive of today's Hong Kong.This hypothesis, of course, does not disrespect Mr. Leung. He has every right to his political views and expressions, and Benny Tai can propose the possibility of universal suffrage within academic circles. However, Mr. Leung is a follower of Trotsky, a figure from the extreme left of the former SovBefore 2019, Hong Kong enjoyed relative freedom of speech but never engaged in mature discussions about whether the electoral systems of the UK and the U.S. qualify as universal suffrage. Because once a rational and critical analysis is presented, it would be labeled by the pro-democracy side as havAs a result, those holding such views would refrain from speaking out, much like today in the U.S., where many reportedly believe that Trump is not as bad as Kamala Harris but dare not express this publicly for fear of social repercussions and potentially losing their jobs.This reflects a structural problem in society. In any country, regardless of how democratic and free it is, democracy and freedom need to be practiced by free individuals. Just as in a communist utopia where wealth and food are to be distributed equally, the distribution process is not handled by diOn what basis can some individuals control the distribution of wealth and food? Where do these people derive their power? Is there any selfishness in the distribution process? Marx did not address any of this in his discourse.This highlights that the quality of "humans" does not guarantee perfection, whether in the leaders elected or the voters casting ballots.Today's electoral democracy in the U.S. is not merely a systemic issue but rather a problem with the quality and judgment of the broader populace. Human issues are shaped by education across generations: moral values, ways of thinking, and judgments of good and evil are all molded from kindergarten Three days before the U.S. election, a law passed by the German parliament came into effect: German citizens can now freely change their official records regarding name and gender, once a year, without needing medical proof or a judicial ruling. Authorities have already received at least 1,200 appliAccording to this law, a person's gender in Germany is no longer determined by physiological characteristics but by individual will. Adult Germans can choose from four genders: male, female, non-binary, and gender-neutral. Additionally, individuals can freely change their names to better reflect theLike the U.S., Germany is a parliamentary democracy. Of course, if a democratic decision is wrong, it can be corrected in the next election cycle as long as the president or prime minister can be replaced. However, given today’s trends, this is not guaranteed: when The Washington Post announced this
陶傑
2 months ago
U.S. Election Scenarios and Post-Election Policy Risks
The U.S. election remains very close though a win for former President Donald Trump appears slightly more likely than one for Vice President Kamala Harris. The race for control of the House is also close, though here a Democrat majority looks marginally more likely. For the Senate, a Republican majo
Fortress Hill Advisors
2 months ago
BRICS Summit 2024: Not a Game Changer
The BRICS Summit, despite expectations, and the Kazan deceleration, which was a joint statement signed after the summit, is not a game-changer but offered little of substance. No concrete steps were taken on accepting new members in Kazan while 13 countries including Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Turkishe’s president Erdogan joined the summit but no consensus reached for Turkiye to become a member in the near future. I
Fortress Hill Advisors
2 months ago
Global Healthcare Weekly
In our global healthcare weekly, we focus on key stock catalysts for biotech companies before April 2025.NewAmsterdam Pharma Company N.V. (NASDAQ: NAMS) is a late-stage clinical biopharmaceutical company focused on developing oral, non-statin medications aimed at reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C). With a market capitaA critical upcoming catalyst for NewAmsterdam is the topline data from its pivotal Phase 3 TANDEM trial, evaluating the fixed-dose combination (FDC) of obicetrapib and ezetimibe in adult patients with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia (HeFH), atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), Gyre Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: GYRE) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on research and clinical development of protease therapeutics to address unmet medical needs in disorders of the complement and coagulation systems. With a market capitalization of US$1.3 billion and an estimated cash reserA pivotal catalyst for Gyre Therapeutics is the topline data readout anticipated in early 2025 from its Phase 3 clinical trial evaluating hydronidone for chronic hepatitis B (CHB)-associated liver fibrosis in China. This trial has fully enrolled 248 patients, with the last patient completing the 52-Immuron Limited (NASDAQ: IMRN) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing polyclonal antibodies to address unmet medical needs, with research and development activities spanning Australia, Israel, and the United States. Immuron has a market capitalization of US$11.1 milA key upcoming catalyst for Immuron is the topline data readout expected in April 2025 for its Phase 2 clinical study of Travelan. The study, which aims to evaluate the efficacy of Travelan in preventing gastrointestinal infections, has reached 85% of its recruitment target of 866 participants. Thes
V小姐
2 months ago
Global Healthcare Weekly
In our global healthcare weekly, our focus turns to finding key stock catalysts for biotech companies expected in November and December 2024.Autolus Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ: AUTL) a London-based biotech company with a US$1.19 billion market cap, focuses on developing engineered T-cell therapies for hematological cancers. Its lead product candidate, Obe-cel (AUTO1), is designed for B-cell Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (B-ALL). AUTO1 has rObe-cel is an autologous CAR T-cell therapy that targets CD19, aiming to deliver high specificity with reduced treatment-related toxicity. Data presented at EHA and additional data expected at ASCO in 2024 have shown promising response rates and durability in patients. This upcoming PDUFA decision iTrevi Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRVI) a company with a market cap of US$222 million, focuses on developing therapies for serious neurologically mediated conditions. Haduvio, its lead product, is being evaluated in a Phase 2b trial for treating chronic cough in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), The Phase 2b CORAL study evaluates Haduvio’s efficacy as a potential anti-tussive agent, specifically for chronic cough associated with IPF. Following promising Phase 2a findings, this larger study is expected to yield interim data in late 2024, with topline data projected during the first half 2025Puma Biotechnology, Inc. (NASDAQ: PBYI) with a market cap of approximately US$149 million, is advancing its portfolio in oncology, primarily focusing on small-cell lung cancer (SCLC). The firm’s lead drug candidate, Alisertib, is now in a Phase 2 trial targeting SCLC, where it has demonstrated diseThe ongoing Phase 2 ALISCA-Lung1 trial explores the efficacy of Alisertib at a 30mg dose for SCLC. Previously presented data at ASCO showed an overall response rate of 9.5% and a disease control rate of 81%. Additional interim data, expected in Q4 2024, will further clarify Alisertib’s potential impCardiff Oncology Inc. (NASDAQ: CRDF) valued at US$135.7 million, is advancing therapies for difficult-to-treat cancers. Its lead candidate, CRDF-004, targets metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) and is currently in a Phase 2 trial. Cardiff’s cash reserves of US$48.3 million supports continued trial pCRDF-004 combines Onvansertib with standard-of-care therapies to enhance therapeutic response in mCRC. Early data from Phase 1b showed favorable safety and efficacy, making this combination encouraging in a high-need area. Upcoming data in H2 2024 will be critical to validate its impact on mCRC, wheQuince Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: QNCX) is a small biotech company with a market cap of US$47.2 million, primarily developing EryDex for Ataxia-Telangiectasia (A-T), a rare neurodegenerative disease. The firm recently lifted an IND hold and initiated dosing for its Phase 3 NEAT trial in June 2024, EryDex is designed to modulate immune responses and reduce neuroinflammation, targeting the specific complications of A-T. The Phase 3 trial will assess the efficacy and safety of EryDex over an extended period, positioning it as a potential disease-modifying therapy. The Q4 2025 data readout would
V小姐
2 months ago
Global Healthcare Weekly
In our global healthcare weekly, we focus on identifiying key stock catalysts for biotech companies in the fourth quarter this week.Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated (NASDAQ: CORT) is pharmaceutical company focusing on the discovery, development, and commercialization of drugs that modulate cortisol activity. With a market capitalization of US$5.1 billion and an estimated cash balance of US$523.5 million, Corcept is best known fRelacorilant has received orphan drug designations (ODD) from both the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Commission (EC) for the treatment of Cushing’s syndrome, which provides regulatory incentives and extended market exclusivity if approved. The GRADIENT trial focuses on patMarinus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: MRNS) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing treatments for rare genetic epilepsies and seizure disorders. With a market capitalization of US$101.6 million, Marinus has a limited cash runway of 2.6 months. The firm’s approved prEnrollment for the TrustTSC trial was completed in May 2024 with 129 participants, and the final patient visit occurred in September. The trial is designed to assess seizure reduction, with the goal of demonstrating a 25% improvement in seizure frequency compared to placebo. A low discontinuation raOmega Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: OMGA) is a biopharmaceutical company with a focus on using mRNA therapeutics as programmable epigenetic medicines through its OMEGA Epigenomic Programming platform. With a market capitalization of US$58.46 million and a cash reserve of $30.4 million, Omega is in the The MYCHELANGELO I trial is progressing with positive early data. In March 2024, Omega reported that OTX-2002 showed consistent dose-dependent pharmacokinetics, no dose-limiting toxicities, and effective downregulation of MYC expression in patients across the first three monotherapy dose levels. Not
V小姐
2 months ago
Global Healthcare Weekly
In our global healthcare weekly, we focus on identifiying key stock catalysts for biotech companies this week. Atara Biotherapeutics (NASDAQ: ATRA) with a market cap of around $41.8 million, focuses on developing T-cell immunotherapies for cancers and autoimmune diseases. The firm’s lead candidate,
V小姐
2 months ago
孤立主義才是美國傳統
美國總統大選即將舉行，政治菁英、知識份子皆懼怕特朗普捲土重來，再有四年時間破壞既有的國際和政治秩序。政治最忌不確定性，使至特朗普的善變和極端作風來得嚇人，但在口沒遮攔的詞令背後，其賣座之處是植根在傳統的孤立主義。 從1789年到1941年美國正式參與二戰，美國外交上一直奉行孤立戰略，如前總統華盛頓在1796年告別演說直白地說，美國要可能與外國「減少政治聯繫」，「避免與其他國家建立永久聯盟」。特朗普雖然沒有華盛頓的謹慎和遠見，但其理念也是植根於19世紀末的傳統思維。 美國早年的孤立主義是隱而不宣的外交理念，立國國父皆相信美國在地緣格局安全，東西兩旁有巨大的海洋保護，南北兩面又有友好或可操控的鄰國 舊時孤立主義總能契合不同立場和群體的要求。對現實主義者來說，美國有地理保護可以減少理會大西洋和太平洋對岸的事務；對理想主義者來說即 可以說，到了20世紀中葉美國才扭轉其傳統，特朗普乘勢出現只是傳統的反撲。1940年美國仍盡努力遠離二戰的泥潭，但翌年日本空襲珍珠港 二戰前，美國有長達150多年不願締結軍事聯盟、也不願被集體安全承諾束縛的傳統，就如特朗普一樣喜歡單邊主義的特性。他會質疑讓烏克蘭加
杳三
2 months ago
以色列的戰爭即和平
In October 2023, thousands of Hamas militants successfully broke through the border defenses, destroyed several Israeli villages, and captured a large number of hostages. Subsequently, Prime Minister Netanyahu not only described Hamas as a "neo-Nazi", but also threatened to achieve "total victory",
杳三
2 months ago
From Glory to Gloom: Hong Kong Fails the 'ISO 9000' Standard (Edward Chin)
Hong Kong has been sinking since that fateful day on June 30th, 2020, at 11:00 pm when the National Security Law (NSL) came into effect. The city’s glory is gone. The defenders of our core values have been imprisoned or driven into exile. For years, Hongkongers tried peaceful protests, asking Beijin To me, Hong Kong was always more than just a financial hub. Hong Kong was a city of possibilities—where people built their futures, whether through business, craftsmanship, or trade. It was a place that allowed for survival and success. But that Hong Kong no longer exists. Beijing’s chokehold has st My closest friends in the finance and business sectors remain deeply committed to the ideals of Hong Kong’s freedoms. Yet even among the pro-establishment business community, there is growing concern. I hear it in their voices when we talk—people who once defended the government’s actions now expres As for Jimmy Lai, his fate under the totalitarian regime is still not known. The trial of Jimmy Lai, founder of the pro-democracy newspaper Apple Daily, marks a tragic turning point in Hong Kong's recent history. The prolonged delay in Lai's trial for alleged violations of the National Security Law Last month, Jimmy Lai’s international legal team, along with his son, Sebastien Lai, submitted an urgent appeal to Dr. Alice Edwards, the UN Special Rapporteur on Torture. The appeal highlights a range of serious concerns regarding Mr. Lai’s treatment in detention, including: Most Hongkongers never wanted independence—they simply wanted the freedoms that were promised to them under the “one country two systems” framework. That said, the 'one country, two systems' model fails the ISO 9000 standard completely. What’s terrifying is the growing sense that Hong Kong’s distinc As I watch from afar, I see the exodus continuing. Capital is flowing out of Hong Kong, and so are the people. This time, it’s not just the pro-democracy activists leaving—many from the pro-establishment camp are also packing their bags. They see the writing on the wall. The government’s heavy-hande I remember a recent conversation with a pro-establishment business contact. We were on FaceTime, and he looked at me with a mixture of fear and desperation. “Do you think John Lee and the sanctioned officials are still in their right state of mind to govern Hong Kong?” he asked. His question highlig As for Jimmy Lai, a prominent figure representing Hong Kong’s fight for freedom and democracy, should be granted amnesty by the Hong Kong government. His imprisonment not only represents a grave injustice but also symbolizes the erosion of the liberties that once defined the city. Granting him amnesBy offering amnesty to Jimmy Lai, John Lee can initiate a similar process of healing and renewal. This act would signal that Hong Kong is willing to reconcile its past, address injustices, and return to the rule of law and the freedoms that once made it a global beacon. It is not just a matter of on O God, eternal Father, look down upon your children whom you have created with dignity and given freedom. We pray for the freedom of the people who suffer in Hong Kong and throughout the mainland, especially believers who suffer persecution for your name’s sake. We pray that you would rebuke the for
錢志健
2 months ago
子女在英國讀書，避免中毒
西方左派近年入侵西方人的正常生活，用但係愛平等包裝極左的馬克斯主義，在教育界、荷里活、傳媒經營多年，佔據主流之後，開始文化獨裁，打擊異見人士，令英美沉默的大多數不敢開口，怕一開口就被標籤為極右人渣法西斯。 每一個人的性別、種族與生俱來。男人就是男人，女人就是女人，在香港和華人社會，千百年來並無爭議。天下本無事、庸人自擾之，全民起動拼命要在太監之中找一個生物上的女人，又或者在尼姑庵裏找一個男人，純屬浪費時間。中國人不做這樣的蠢事。 但近年英語世界陷入此類集體愚蠢。 「身份政治」近年入侵音樂界。兩百年的古典音樂作家：巴哈、海頓、莫札特、貝多芬，以及柏林交響樂團，清一色是金髮白種的男人天下。此一歷史與文化的事實，現在備受英語世界的 西方現代音樂本來被非洲的敲擊樂滲透，一味的嘈吵，加上空氣裏一股大麻味道。非洲黑人騎劫西方樂壇，已經討厭，最新起爭論，包括翻出十九世紀一個混血的黑人小提琴家布里治陶與 另外，莫扎特有一個姐姐，不為人知，據說才華被時代埋沒，甚至有猜測她的一些作品被歸為弟弟名下。 此類「翻案」，顯示出西方左派的意識形態日趨極端，無處不在煽動兩性和不同種族、階級身份之間的分化敵意。 現代流行音樂的主流下，古典音樂已經邊緣化，無法擺脫被批判的噩運。 十八世紀的女性，其政治和經濟權利都大受局限，但這不是莫札特父親的錯，更不是莫札特的錯。在莫札特的年代，許多貴族婦女都是優秀的鋼琴家，她們只活躍於上流社交圈，並不公開 然而，這些歷史細節，左派的政治故意忽略，將整個西方古典音樂是抹黑為男性霸權、白人種族優越主義者「玩晒」。美國民主黨由奧巴馬到今日的賀錦麗，就是代表這股文化大革命的惡 西方的女權運動，是一場浩大的歷史潮流結果：即工業化令人類逐漸得以擺脫舊有的土地、農業和政治專制。女性主義率先在西方興起，是因爲脫胎自基督教信念，目標是人權平等。 即使十八世紀的歐洲宮廷，貴族婦女的地位和權益，比低下階層的手工作坊或耕田的工農男人高級，不是性別歧視問題，而是社會經濟結構的必然結果。 在莫札特最著名的一齣歌劇之中，伯爵夫人與侍女交換身份而易服，作曲家為這兩位女主角所寫的唱段，刻意模糊其階級的分野，因爲當時最重要的政治議題，不是兩性之爭，而是貴族與 自從法國大革命之後，歐洲舊有的王權崩塌，貴族遭清洗，釋放了巨大的權力空間，十九世紀的中產女性，比大革命之前得享更多自由，莫札特的姐姐一旦嫁人，沒有再施展音樂才華的機 十九世紀末，女權運動順勢形成，因為此時女性受教育程度大大提升，傳教事業興旺，許多女性傳教士前往異域工作，興學行醫，眼界大開，又適逢第一次世界大戰爆發，歐洲的勞工市場 因爲工業化帶來商業繁榮的現代社會，傳統男性的體力，已經不再佔有絕對優勢，而商業社會及民主政治特別著重的溝通、傳播、調停等技能，女性都勝任有餘。 時至今日，西方左派政治表面以推進「社會進步」爲名，其實社會分裂為代價，然而最大的時代挑戰，是人工智能對人文的挑戰，包括女權運動在内的身份政治，卻以男性為政治敵對目標 當今世界，只有先進的富裕社會才有女權議題，卻生育率普遍低下；與之相反，生育率居高不下的地方。如非洲和中東等，根本沒有女權議題的空間。左派的女性主義由爭取人權，演變爲 香港家長將子女送去英國讀中學，要警惕英國中學課程之中已經塞入了大量甚有政治偏見的這類毒素，要留意子女在英國讀書的過程，為了要融入「主流」，被班級其他同學誤導，為了要 在這方面，家長要謹慎應對，從小正確教育子女：你長大了，是男人；或者你長大了，是簡單的女人。或者，我們都是華人；記住：我們一家都是正常人。
陶傑
2 months ago
AI突破恍新猷 經濟論證仍舊酒
社長開題「人工智慧和數據革命下的新現代經濟學」。上網找，即見今屆諾獎得主Daron Acemoglu研究不少。未揭曉前，還打趣說既然今屆醫學、物理、化學獎都涉AI，恐怕經濟亦然。果然如此。剛半年前，Acemoglu發表題為「The Simple Macroeconomics of AI」的工作論文。其實對於不知者而言，AI才要「新」和「現代」的經濟學。不過，學術最高境界不是動輒有新事物、新現象便要新理論，反而是要將之收納於現有框架，如數學和物理界皆有類似的大統一理論架構，因為這樣的理論才是跨時空永恆真理。 Acemoglu並無發明什麼新理論描述AI，模型還是當代宏觀經濟常用的整體均衡，只是將生產函數較為精細地拆開資本和勞動兩瓣，並各自引入任務為本的生產力模式，再容許各類（包括自動化、人機互補、省成本、省人手）AI以不同模式改變這生產力。到最後，AI的角色還是將基礎的人力、物力（資本）投入谷大成為產出，而所量度的，還是全要素生產力（TFP）。當然，AI在各類生產的模式和程度各異，要分開計再總合，這要用上Hulten理論，亦即加總各類生產力的權重正是各類生產的名義GDP佔比。 Hulten理論驟看直觀、常識而已，但其推論也需一翻功夫，而若欠此理論亦無法將TFP拆開引入各類AI計再加總。這正如宏觀理論的微觀基礎要靠Arrow-Debreu理論，其加總模式類似。由此可見，在經濟理論或模型架構上，AI跟歷來科技突破本質一樣，都是將相同投入變得更多產出（或減少投入得相同產出），縱影響生產力的機制有異。 學理上毋須新意，實證上亦不驚人。據Acemoglu數據分析，AI在未來十年於TFP貢獻不逾0.53至0.66%，聊勝於無──此非出自泛泛之輩，而是專研AI的諾獎得主。直觀而言，幾十年前的日本和十幾年來的中國，AI皆屬尖端級數。不過兩國實質GDP增長皆長年偏低或趨跌；日本TFP自1990年起增長歸零，中國的則自十年前起轉跌。 回到AI最強的美國，效Acemoglu以十年計，剔除海嘯六季和疫情八季失常數字，2004/14年美國GDP增長平均2.39%，2014/24年2.55%，可見AI潛在貢獻實在有限。 AI也許顛覆生活，但論經濟則顯然毋須新的理論、模型，甚至效應而言也不新得到哪裏。 羅家聰[email protected]
Ka Chung Law
2 months ago
特首終醒失國際 中東中亞何作為
雜誌社長早前也曾開題點唱施政報告。雖然事隔兩週看似過時，但問君有何重點，恐怕不多人曉，因為讀得囉唆、重點看似很多，結果變得行貨。且從官網取重點單張，繼首堆什麼準確貫徹、強化政府等緊跟共黨路線的必有部分，打後便是國際金融中心、國際航運中心、國際貿易中心、國際航空樞紐、國際醫療創新樞紐、國際專上教育樞紐、國際化文化創產業……看到重點啦？「國際」，正是香港所失去的，長官現在知道了，甚至緊張起來了。至於其標題劈頭謂「齊改革」，乃共黨慣技，因不斷錯，才不斷改。 從上所見，航運、空運、金融，其實都是貿易衍生出來。查本港貿易（進出口和）佔GDP，1984年前在140%，打後一路反覆升至2011年逾360%。隨着大陸經濟轉差，比例由當年高峯跌到2019年暴動的300%以下；2021年曾因外圍需要疫情物資而重上360%，但疫後這兩、三年滿以為復常下卻竟再度跌穿300%，重返廿年前沙士水平。 香港的發達期正是上述1984至2011這近卅年，此乃GDP增長所不能反映的──因後者跌足半世紀，但港人的繁榮幸福感卻跟上述貿易佔GDP直接掛鈎。由此可見，本港的繁華興盛（起碼在認知上）繫於其國際程度，而非經濟增長高低。但可惜的是，國際信任須長年建立，破壞容易建設難，現在長官所覬覦的只是中東和中亞的國際。 然而，中東和中亞無法取代歐美，甚至難以補足。歐美人均水平高，銀紙印出來，可任印讓人人四處買，大量買剩的資金則搞成為金融市場。中東地底雖自動噴油生錢，但人均水平卻低得多，而隨着油價廿年來有波幅無升幅，購買力顯然被通脹長年蠶食；金融方面，則只有剛起步的杜拜。至於中亞則別問了，這是被投資地，而非投資者。 自九七後，香港被迫倚賴大陸。早年大陸具投資價值，但今天顯然已什麼都過剩，香港被迫一味迎上的結果，就是當上邊玩完之際，香港在無兩際對沖下被迫一同玩完。中亞窮，中東精，垂死掙扎式打其主意無異於緣木求魚。知錯肯改固然好過死不悔改，但宜從長線大局觀作準確評估，不宜盲目樂觀，底可以見，但能否回升則難看好。 羅家聰[email protected]
Ka Chung Law
2 months ago
Brazil: High Expenditure Levels Challenge Fiscal Stability
Brazil’s fiscal data through August shows a primary deficit of 2.3% of GDP, with expenditure growth outpacing revenue gains despite efforts to increase government income. Social transfers and unemployment benefits contributed to rising expenditures, now at 20.2% of GDP. The Central Bank’s recent rat
Fortress Hill Advisors
2 months ago
U.S. Government Debt and Deficit––– Does It Matter?
Post-Election U.S. fiscal policy can still cause stress in the Treasury market given the unsustainable U.S. budget deficit and the high risk of a rating agency downgrade in H1 2025. However, 10yr U.S. Treasury yields above 4% now have a buffer and the prospect for Fed policy is also important. If th
Fortress Hill Advisors
2 months ago
China Banking System: Lessons from Japan
The proposed Yuan1trn capital injection for the six largest banks would be pre-emptive, while China is also quick to merge weaker/failing small to mid-sized banks. However, rising NPL’s with low policy rate and pressure to rollover LGFV/SOE debt will likely all ensure that overall lending growth is
Fortress Hill Advisors
2 months ago
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