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Founded in Hong Kong in 2019, Fortress Hill Advisor seeks to provide premium economic and financial researches.
U.S. Election Scenarios and Post-Election Policy Risks
The U.S. election remains very close though a win for former President Donald Trump appears slightly more likely than one for Vice President Kamala Harris. The race for control of the House is also close, though here a Democrat majority looks marginally more likely. For the Senate, a Republican majo
Fortress Hill Advisors
2 months ago
BRICS Summit 2024: Not a Game Changer
The BRICS Summit, despite expectations, and the Kazan deceleration, which was a joint statement signed after the summit, is not a game-changer but offered little of substance. No concrete steps were taken on accepting new members in Kazan while 13 countries including Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Turkishe’s president Erdogan joined the summit but no consensus reached for Turkiye to become a member in the near future. I
Fortress Hill Advisors
2 months ago
BRICS, BRI, and U.S. Tensions for China
BRICS can provide a political buffer but not economic, as BRICS are still searching for practical areas for cooperation. However, Donald Trump universal tariffs threats could focus BRICS on more intra EM trade. BRI has already helped to redirect China exports to EM countries, despite the slowdown i
Fortress Hill Advisors
2 months ago
Brazil: High Expenditure Levels Challenge Fiscal Stability
Brazil’s fiscal data through August shows a primary deficit of 2.3% of GDP, with expenditure growth outpacing revenue gains despite efforts to increase government income. Social transfers and unemployment benefits contributed to rising expenditures, now at 20.2% of GDP. The Central Bank’s recent rat
Fortress Hill Advisors
2 months ago
U.S. Government Debt and Deficit––– Does It Matter?
Post-Election U.S. fiscal policy can still cause stress in the Treasury market given the unsustainable U.S. budget deficit and the high risk of a rating agency downgrade in H1 2025. However, 10yr U.S. Treasury yields above 4% now have a buffer and the prospect for Fed policy is also important. If th
Fortress Hill Advisors
2 months ago
China Banking System: Lessons from Japan
The proposed Yuan1trn capital injection for the six largest banks would be pre-emptive, while China is also quick to merge weaker/failing small to mid-sized banks. However, rising NPL’s with low policy rate and pressure to rollover LGFV/SOE debt will likely all ensure that overall lending growth is
Fortress Hill Advisors
2 months ago
A Mature Fed Easing Cycle and 2yr Treasury Yields
The outlook for two-year yields remains largely dependent on the size of the Fed's expected rate cuts, and that remains fluid and will be most affected by whether the data continues to show momentum or whether the soft landing versus hard landing debate reignites Influence. However, others should al
Fortress Hill Advisors
2 months ago
China Big Corporate Debt Deleveraging
Private companies ex property developers have seen a small pay down of debt, but the largest remaining portion of non-financial debt ex LGFV is central and local SOE’s. They have low profitability and have shown few signs of increased leverage. This leaves the onus on fiscal policy. Reports suggest
Fortress Hill Advisors
2 months ago
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